Boliden AB (publ) Beat Analyst Estimates: See What The Consensus Is Forecasting For Next Year

Investors in Boliden AB (publ) (STO:BOL) had a good week, as its shares rose 3.8% to close at kr339 following the release of its quarterly results. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of kr22b were what the analysts expected, Boliden surprised by delivering a (statutory) profit of kr8.34 per share, an impressive 44% above what was forecast. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Check out our latest analysis for Boliden

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Boliden's 16 analysts is for revenues of kr92.2b in 2025. This reflects a meaningful 9.5% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to decrease 6.6% to kr29.65 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of kr91.3b and earnings per share (EPS) of kr31.16 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the minor downgrade to their earnings per share numbers for next year.

The consensus price target held steady at kr329, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on Boliden, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at kr480 and the most bearish at kr265 per share. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Boliden's past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that Boliden's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 7.5% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 11% p.a. growth over the last five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 5.5% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while Boliden's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at kr329, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Boliden going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Before you take the next step you should know about the 1 warning sign for Boliden that we have uncovered.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.