Boliden (OM:BOL) - Share price, News & Analysis

Q: What is the Fair Price of BOL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

BOL (SEK341.2) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (SEK533.4)

BOL fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	5/6
Future Growth	0/6
Past Performance	4/6
Financial Health	6/6
Dividends	4/6

BOL Stock Overview

Rewards

Trading at 36% below our estimate of its fair value

Earnings have grown 6.5% per year over the past 5 years

Risk Analysis

Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 13.4% per year for the next 3 years

Dividend of 7.62% is not well covered by earnings

Boliden Competitors

SSAB

OM:SSAB A

kr44.6b

Holmen

OM:HOLM B

kr68.9b

Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget

OM:SCA B

kr107.7b

HEXPOL

OM:HPOL B

kr29.9b

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Boliden
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	kr341.20
52 Week High	kr514.60
52 Week Low	kr268.60
Beta	1.28
1 Month Change	-16.31%
3 Month Change	-22.67%
1 Year Change	4.92%
3 Year Change	41.78%
5 Year Change	43.85%
Change since IPO	853.15%

Recent News & Updates

May 30

Is There An Opportunity With Boliden AB (publ)'s (STO:BOL) 23% Undervaluation?

Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of Boliden AB (publ) ( STO:BOL ) by taking the...

May 18

Here's Why I Think Boliden (STO:BOL) Might Deserve Your Attention Today

Some have more dollars than sense, they say, so even companies that have no revenue, no profit, and a record of falling...

Shareholder Returns

	BOL	SE Metals and Mining	SE Market
7D	-3.5%	-4.9%	-1.3%
1Y	4.9%	0.4%	-23.6%

Return vs Industry: BOL exceeded the Swedish Metals and Mining industry which returned 0.4% over the past year.

Return vs Market: BOL exceeded the Swedish Market which returned -23.6% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is BOL's price volatile compared to industry and market?
BOL volatility
BOL Average Weekly Movement	6.9%
Metals and Mining Industry Average Movement	7.7%
Market Average Movement	7.4%
10% most volatile stocks in SE Market	12.2%
10% least volatile stocks in SE Market	4.7%

Stable Share Price: BOL is not significantly more volatile than the rest of Swedish stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 7% a week.

Volatility Over Time: BOL's weekly volatility (7%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
1924	6,219	Ms Staffas	https://www.boliden.com

Boliden AB (publ) engages in the exploring, extracting, and processing of base metals and precious metals in Sweden, other Nordic region, Germany, the United Kingdom, the rest of Europe, North America, and internationally. The company operates through two segments, Business Area Mines and Business Area Smelters. It explores for copper, zinc, nickel, lead, gold, silver, cobalt, tellurium, platinum, and palladium deposits.

Boliden Fundamentals Summary

How do Boliden's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
BOL fundamental statistics
Market Cap	kr90.40b
Earnings (TTM)	kr10.49b
Revenue (TTM)	kr73.37b

8.9x

P/E Ratio

1.3x

P/S Ratio

Is BOL overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
BOL income statement (TTM)
Revenue	kr73.37b
Cost of Revenue	kr58.03b
Gross Profit	kr15.34b
Other Expenses	kr4.84b
Earnings	kr10.49b

Last Reported Earnings

Mar 31, 2022

Next Earnings Date

Jul 21, 2022

Earnings per share (EPS)	38.36
Gross Margin	20.91%
Net Profit Margin	14.30%
Debt/Equity Ratio	14.2%

How did BOL perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

7.6%

Current Dividend Yield

27%

Payout Ratio

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is BOL undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
PEG Ratio

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for BOL?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for BOL. This is calculated by dividing BOL's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is BOL's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	kr90.40b

BOL key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	1.2x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	4.7x
PEG Ratio	-0.7x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does BOL's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

BOL PE Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PE ratio for BOL vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	12x
SSAB A SSAB	2.5x	-55.9%	kr44.6b
HOLM B Holmen	18.1x	-16.2%	kr68.9b
SCA B Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget	15.5x	-16.2%	kr107.7b
HPOL B HEXPOL	12.8x	6.7%	kr29.9b
BOL Boliden	8.9x	-13.4%	kr90.4b

Forward PE

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: BOL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.9x) compared to the peer average (12x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does BOL's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Metals and Mining Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: BOL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.9x) compared to the Swedish Metals and Mining industry average (13.1x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is BOL's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

BOL PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	8.9x
Fair PE Ratio	9.7x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: BOL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.9x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.7x).

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of BOL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: BOL (SEK341.2) is trading below our estimate of fair value (SEK533.4)

Significantly Below Fair Value: BOL is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: BOL's earnings are forecast to decline next year, so we can't calculate its PEG ratio.

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Future Growth

How is Boliden forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 15 analysts?

Future Growth Score

0/6

Future Growth Score 0/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

-13.4%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: BOL's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-13.4% per year).

Earnings vs Market: BOL's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-13.4% per year).

High Growth Earnings: BOL's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: BOL's revenue is expected to decline over the next 3 years (-3.4% per year).

High Growth Revenue: BOL's revenue is forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-3.4% per year).

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: BOL's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (18.2%).

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Past Performance

How has Boliden performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

4/6

Past Performance Score 4/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

6.5%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: BOL has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: BOL's current net profit margins (14.3%) are higher than last year (13.1%).

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: BOL's earnings have grown by 6.5% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: BOL's earnings growth over the past year (32.7%) exceeds its 5-year average (6.5% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: BOL earnings growth over the past year (32.7%) underperformed the Metals and Mining industry 171.9%.

Return on Equity

High ROE: BOL's Return on Equity (19%) is considered low.

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Financial Health

How is Boliden's financial position?

Financial Health Score

6/6

Financial Health Score 6/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: BOL's short term assets (SEK37.1B) exceed its short term liabilities (SEK14.5B).

Long Term Liabilities: BOL's short term assets (SEK37.1B) exceed its long term liabilities (SEK18.3B).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: BOL has more cash than its total debt.

Reducing Debt: BOL's debt to equity ratio has reduced from 27.2% to 14.2% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: BOL's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (154.3%).

Interest Coverage: BOL's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (125.1x coverage).

Balance Sheet

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Dividend

What is Boliden current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

5/6

Dividend Score 5/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Future Dividend Coverage

7.62%

Current Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: BOL's dividend (7.62%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the Swedish market (1.67%).

High Dividend: BOL's dividend (7.62%) is in the top 25% of dividend payers in the Swedish market (5.41%)

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: BOL's dividend payments have been volatile in the past 10 years.

Growing Dividend: BOL's dividend payments have increased over the past 10 years.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: With its reasonably low payout ratio (27.4%), BOL's dividend payments are well covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: With its high cash payout ratio (125.4%), BOL's dividend payments are not well covered by cash flows.

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Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

5.0yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Ms Staffas (56 yo)

4yrs

Tenure

kr15,854,000

Compensation

Mr. Mikael Staffas, M.Sc. Engineering, MBA, also known as Ms, serves as President and Chief Executive Officer of Boliden AB (publ)since June 01, 2018. He was the President of Boliden Mines at Boliden AB fr...

CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Ms's total compensation ($USD1.58M) is below average for companies of similar size in the Swedish market ($USD2.27M).

Compensation vs Earnings: Ms's compensation has been consistent with company performance over the past year.

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: BOL's management team is seasoned and experienced (5 years average tenure).

Board Members

Experienced Board: BOL's board of directors are not considered experienced ( 0.8 years average tenure), which suggests a new board.

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: BOL insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/06/27 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/06/27 00:00
Earnings	2022/03/31
Annual Earnings	2021/12/31