Earnings Miss: Boliden AB (publ) Missed EPS By 22% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts

It's been a good week for Boliden AB (publ) (STO:BOL) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest quarterly results, and the shares gained 4.1% to kr315. Statutory earnings per share fell badly short of expectations, coming in at kr2.02, some 22% below analyst forecasts, although revenues were okay, approximately in line with analyst estimates at kr22b. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Boliden after the latest results.

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Taking into account the latest results, Boliden's 16 analysts currently expect revenues in 2025 to be kr90.0b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to nosedive 25% to kr21.24 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of kr90.0b and earnings per share (EPS) of kr22.96 in 2025. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a small dip in their earnings per share forecasts.

Check out our latest analysis for Boliden

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at kr311, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on Boliden, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at kr350 and the most bearish at kr250 per share. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 2.9% by the end of 2025. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 9.8% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 4.5% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Boliden is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Boliden. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Boliden's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at kr311, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Boliden going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

It is also worth noting that we have found 1 warning sign for Boliden that you need to take into consideration.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.