Billerud (STO:BILL) shareholders have endured a 27% loss from investing in the stock three years ago

Billerud AB (publ) (STO:BILL) shareholders should be happy to see the share price up 11% in the last month. But that cannot eclipse the less-than-impressive returns over the last three years. Truth be told the share price declined 40% in three years and that return, Dear Reader, falls short of what you could have got from passive investing with an index fund.

Since shareholders are down over the longer term, lets look at the underlying fundamentals over the that time and see if they've been consistent with returns.

Check out our latest analysis for Billerud

Given that Billerud only made minimal earnings in the last twelve months, we'll focus on revenue to gauge its business development. Generally speaking, we'd consider a stock like this alongside loss-making companies, simply because the quantum of the profit is so low. It would be hard to believe in a more profitable future without growing revenues.

Over three years, Billerud grew revenue at 23% per year. That is faster than most pre-profit companies. The share price drop of 12% per year over three years would be considered disappointing by many, so you might argue the company is getting little credit for its impressive revenue growth. It's possible that the prior share price assumed unrealistically high future growth. Before considering a purchase, investors should consider how quickly expenses are growing, relative to revenue.

The company's revenue and earnings (over time) are depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).

We're pleased to report that the CEO is remunerated more modestly than most CEOs at similarly capitalized companies. But while CEO remuneration is always worth checking, the really important question is whether the company can grow earnings going forward. If you are thinking of buying or selling Billerud stock, you should check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. We note that for Billerud the TSR over the last 3 years was -27%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

Billerud shareholders gained a total return of 15% during the year. But that was short of the market average. The silver lining is that the gain was actually better than the average annual return of 2% per year over five year. This could indicate that the company is winning over new investors, as it pursues its strategy. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Billerud that you should be aware of.

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this free list of companies we expect will grow earnings.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Swedish exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.