Billerud AB (publ)

OM:BILL Stock Report

Market Cap: SEK 24.8b

Billerud Valuation

Is BILL undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of BILL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: BILL (SEK99.9) is trading below our estimate of fair value (SEK126.2)

Significantly Below Fair Value: BILL is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for BILL?

Key metric: As BILL is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for BILL. This is calculated by dividing BILL's market cap by their current earnings.
What is BILL's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio40.7x
EarningsSEK 611.00m
Market CapSEK 24.85b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does BILL's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for BILL vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average12.1x
ALLEI Alleima
13.3x16.6%SEK 17.7b
HPOL B HEXPOL
15.6x6.4%SEK 36.9b
GRNG Gränges
13.3x24.2%SEK 12.5b
SSAB A SSAB
6.4x-0.8%SEK 50.4b
BILL Billerud
40.7x34.6%SEK 24.8b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: BILL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (40.7x) compared to the peer average (12.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does BILL's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Packaging Industry?

1 CompanyPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
BILL 40.7xIndustry Avg. 18.6xNo. of Companies6PE01020304050+
1 CompanyEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: BILL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (40.7x) compared to the European Packaging industry average (18.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is BILL's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

BILL PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio40.7x
Fair PE Ratio27.2x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: BILL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (40.7x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (27.2x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst BILL forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentSEK 99.90
SEK 126.33
+26.5%
11.9%SEK 150.00SEK 104.00n/a6
Nov ’25SEK 94.25
SEK 127.17
+34.9%
11.8%SEK 150.00SEK 104.00n/a6
Oct ’25SEK 114.10
SEK 129.00
+13.1%
10.0%SEK 150.00SEK 112.00n/a6
Sep ’25SEK 107.90
SEK 122.86
+13.9%
13.7%SEK 145.00SEK 91.00n/a7
Aug ’25SEK 106.60
SEK 118.57
+11.2%
15.4%SEK 145.00SEK 91.00n/a7
Jul ’25SEK 98.45
SEK 116.33
+18.2%
14.7%SEK 140.00SEK 91.00n/a6
Jun ’25SEK 105.10
SEK 111.83
+6.4%
18.1%SEK 140.00SEK 87.00n/a6
May ’25SEK 92.35
SEK 104.33
+13.0%
14.0%SEK 130.00SEK 87.00n/a6
Apr ’25SEK 96.02
SEK 103.17
+7.4%
12.9%SEK 126.00SEK 88.00n/a6
Mar ’25SEK 90.76
SEK 102.00
+12.4%
14.5%SEK 126.00SEK 83.00n/a7
Feb ’25SEK 91.84
SEK 102.71
+11.8%
14.4%SEK 126.00SEK 83.00n/a7
Jan ’25SEK 102.40
SEK 103.57
+1.1%
13.9%SEK 126.00SEK 84.00n/a7
Dec ’24SEK 104.25
SEK 103.57
-0.7%
13.9%SEK 126.00SEK 84.00n/a7
Nov ’24SEK 103.00
SEK 102.57
-0.4%
14.0%SEK 126.00SEK 84.00SEK 94.257
Oct ’24SEK 101.35
SEK 94.71
-6.5%
13.8%SEK 112.00SEK 75.00SEK 114.107
Sep ’24SEK 90.58
SEK 91.57
+1.1%
12.1%SEK 110.00SEK 75.00SEK 107.907
Aug ’24SEK 87.86
SEK 91.57
+4.2%
12.1%SEK 110.00SEK 75.00SEK 106.607
Jul ’24SEK 81.96
SEK 100.86
+23.1%
7.0%SEK 110.00SEK 91.00SEK 98.457
Jun ’24SEK 85.10
SEK 108.57
+27.6%
10.5%SEK 125.00SEK 91.00SEK 105.107
May ’24SEK 98.36
SEK 113.57
+15.5%
12.3%SEK 135.00SEK 91.00SEK 92.357
Apr ’24SEK 106.55
SEK 127.43
+19.6%
6.0%SEK 135.00SEK 110.00SEK 96.027
Mar ’24SEK 122.65
SEK 131.00
+6.8%
2.4%SEK 135.00SEK 125.00SEK 90.767
Feb ’24SEK 122.90
SEK 134.83
+9.7%
3.5%SEK 142.00SEK 130.00SEK 91.846
Jan ’24SEK 127.10
SEK 148.00
+16.4%
11.0%SEK 178.00SEK 130.00SEK 102.405
Dec ’23SEK 146.10
SEK 161.00
+10.2%
19.6%SEK 215.00SEK 130.00SEK 104.255
Nov ’23SEK 141.80
SEK 165.00
+16.4%
17.2%SEK 215.00SEK 140.00SEK 103.005

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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