Earnings Miss: Systemair AB (publ) Missed EPS By 8.9% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts

It's been a sad week for Systemair AB (publ) (STO:SYSR), who've watched their investment drop 10% to kr86.00 in the week since the company reported its quarterly result. It looks like the results were a bit of a negative overall. While revenues of kr3.1b were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings were less than expected, missing estimates by 8.9% to hit kr0.92 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

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Following last week's earnings report, Systemair's three analysts are forecasting 2026 revenues to be kr12.4b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to leap 22% to kr3.89. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of kr12.2b and earnings per share (EPS) of kr4.08 in 2026. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the small dip in their earnings per share numbers for next year.

See our latest analysis for Systemair

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at kr95.33, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Systemair at kr103 per share, while the most bearish prices it at kr83.00. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that Systemair is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Systemair's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2026 expected to display 1.3% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 9.3% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 5.4% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Systemair.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Systemair. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Systemair analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You can also see whether Systemair is carrying too much debt, and whether its balance sheet is healthy, for free on our platform here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.