Alligo AB (publ) Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

The analysts might have been a bit too bullish on Alligo AB (publ) (STO:ALLIGO B), given that the company fell short of expectations when it released its quarterly results last week. Results showed a clear earnings miss, with kr2.3b revenue coming in 2.2% lower than what the analystsexpected. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) of kr0.34 missed the mark badly, arriving some 42% below what was expected. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Alligo from dual analysts is for revenues of kr9.90b in 2025. If met, it would imply a reasonable 5.1% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to leap 63% to kr8.72. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of kr10.0b and earnings per share (EPS) of kr9.31 in 2025. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a minor downgrade to their earnings per share forecasts.

Check out our latest analysis for Alligo

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at kr150, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of Alligo'shistorical trends, as the 6.9% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 is roughly in line with the 6.7% annual growth over the past five years. Juxtapose this against our data, which suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 6.2% per year. It's clear that while Alligo's revenue growth is expected to continue on its current trajectory, it's only expected to grow in line with the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Alligo. Happily, there were no real changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow in line with the overall industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At least one analyst has provided forecasts out to 2027, which can be seen for free on our platform here.

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 4 warning signs for Alligo you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.