Advanced Petrochemical Company Just Reported A Surprise Loss: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Investors in Advanced Petrochemical Company (TADAWUL:2330) had a good week, as its shares rose 4.7% to close at ر.س28.05 following the release of its annual results. Revenues fell 3.4% short of expectations, at ر.س2.2b. Earnings correspondingly dipped, with Advanced Petrochemical reporting a statutory loss of ر.س1.00 per share, whereas the analysts had previously modelled a profit in this period. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Advanced Petrochemical

After the latest results, the four analysts covering Advanced Petrochemical are now predicting revenues of ر.س3.85b in 2025. If met, this would reflect a major 75% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Earnings are expected to improve, with Advanced Petrochemical forecast to report a statutory profit of ر.س1.55 per share. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of ر.س4.85b and earnings per share (EPS) of ر.س1.55 in 2025. So there's been a clear change in sentiment after these results, with the analysts making a large cut to revenues and reconfirming their earnings per share estimates.

The average price target was steady at ر.س41.87even though revenue estimates declined; likely suggesting the analysts place a higher value on earnings. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic Advanced Petrochemical analyst has a price target of ر.س50.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at ر.س34.90. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. One thing stands out from these estimates, which is that Advanced Petrochemical is forecast to grow faster in the future than it has in the past, with revenues expected to display 75% annualised growth until the end of 2025. If achieved, this would be a much better result than the 1.8% annual decline over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 3.8% per year. So it looks like Advanced Petrochemical is expected to grow faster than its competitors, at least for a while.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. They also downgraded Advanced Petrochemical's revenue estimates, but industry data suggests that it is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Advanced Petrochemical analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Plus, you should also learn about the 2 warning signs we've spotted with Advanced Petrochemical .

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.