Estimating The Intrinsic Value Of Sahara International Petrochemical Company (TADAWUL:2310)

In this article we are going to estimate the intrinsic value of Sahara International Petrochemical Company (TADAWUL:2310) by estimating the company's future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. We will take advantage of the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model for this purpose. Models like these may appear beyond the comprehension of a lay person, but they're fairly easy to follow.

We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you.

Check out our latest analysis for Sahara International Petrochemical

What's the estimated valuation?

We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031
Levered FCF (SAR, Millions)	ر.س2.95b	ر.س2.45b	ر.س2.69b	ر.س2.68b	ر.س2.74b	ر.س2.85b	ر.س3.02b	ر.س3.22b	ر.س3.45b	ر.س3.72b
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Analyst x2	Analyst x2	Analyst x1	Est @ -0.61%	Est @ 2.26%	Est @ 4.27%	Est @ 5.68%	Est @ 6.66%	Est @ 7.35%	Est @ 7.83%
Present Value (SAR, Millions) Discounted @ 14%	ر.س2.6k	ر.س1.9k	ر.س1.8k	ر.س1.6k	ر.س1.4k	ر.س1.3k	ر.س1.2k	ر.س1.1k	ر.س1.0k	ر.س984

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = ر.س15b

The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 9.0%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 14%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₁ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = ر.س3.7b× (1 + 9.0%) ÷ (14%– 9.0%) = ر.س77b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= ر.س77b÷ ( 1 + 14%)¹⁰= ر.س20b

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is ر.س35b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of ر.س43.1, the company appears about fair value at a 11% discount to where the stock price trades currently. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.

The assumptions

Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Sahara International Petrochemical as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 14%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.067. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

Next Steps:

Although the valuation of a company is important, it ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. For Sahara International Petrochemical, there are three fundamental items you should further examine:

1. Risks: To that end, you should learn about the 2 warning signs we've spotted with Sahara International Petrochemical (including 1 which doesn't sit too well with us) .
2. Future Earnings: How does 2310's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
3. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Saudi stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.