Results: Aldrees Petroleum and Transport Services Company Exceeded Expectations And The Consensus Has Updated Its Estimates

Investors in Aldrees Petroleum and Transport Services Company (TADAWUL:4200) had a good week, as its shares rose 2.2% to close at ر.س75.50 following the release of its annual results. The result was positive overall - although revenues of ر.س9.1b were in line with what the analysts predicted, Aldrees Petroleum and Transport Services surprised by delivering a statutory profit of ر.س2.36 per share, modestly greater than expected. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Aldrees Petroleum and Transport Services

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Aldrees Petroleum and Transport Services' six analysts is for revenues of ر.س10.9b in 2022, which would reflect a decent 20% increase on its sales over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to climb 15% to ر.س2.72. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of ر.س10.9b and earnings per share (EPS) of ر.س2.98 in 2022. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a minor downgrade to their earnings per share forecasts.

The consensus price target held steady at ر.س85.47, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Aldrees Petroleum and Transport Services at ر.س95.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at ر.س71.00. Still, with such a tight range of estimates, it suggeststhe analysts have a pretty good idea of what they think the company is worth.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of Aldrees Petroleum and Transport Services'historical trends, as the 20% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2022 is roughly in line with the 16% annual revenue growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 3.3% annually. So it's pretty clear that Aldrees Petroleum and Transport Services is forecast to grow substantially faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Aldrees Petroleum and Transport Services. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Aldrees Petroleum and Transport Services going out to 2024, and you can see them free on our platform here..

It is also worth noting that we have found 1 warning sign for Aldrees Petroleum and Transport Services that you need to take into consideration.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.