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Calculating The Intrinsic Value Of Ataa Educational Company (TADAWUL:4292)
How far off is Ataa Educational Company (TADAWUL:4292) from its intrinsic value? Using the most recent financial data, we'll take a look at whether the stock is fairly priced by estimating the company's future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. One way to achieve this is by employing the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Models like these may appear beyond the comprehension of a lay person, but they're fairly easy to follow.
We would caution that there are many ways of valuing a company and, like the DCF, each technique has advantages and disadvantages in certain scenarios. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.
View our latest analysis for Ataa Educational
The calculation
We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast
2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | |
Levered FCF (SAR, Millions) | ر.س39.0m | ر.س73.0m | ر.س107.0m | ر.س118.0m | ر.س128.5m | ر.س140.0m | ر.س152.4m | ر.س166.0m | ر.س180.7m | ر.س196.7m |
Growth Rate Estimate Source | Analyst x1 | Analyst x1 | Analyst x1 | Analyst x1 | Est @ 8.94% | Est @ 8.91% | Est @ 8.89% | Est @ 8.87% | Est @ 8.86% | Est @ 8.86% |
Present Value (SAR, Millions) Discounted @ 14% | ر.س34.2 | ر.س56.2 | ر.س72.2 | ر.س69.9 | ر.س66.8 | ر.س63.8 | ر.س60.9 | ر.س58.2 | ر.س55.6 | ر.س53.1 |
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = ر.س590m
After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 8.8%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 14%.
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2030 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = ر.س197m× (1 + 8.8%) ÷ (14%– 8.8%) = ر.س4.2b
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= ر.س4.2b÷ ( 1 + 14%)10= ر.س1.1b
The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is ر.س1.7b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of ر.س50.0, the company appears around fair value at the time of writing. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.
The assumptions
Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Ataa Educational as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 14%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.954. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
Moving On:
Although the valuation of a company is important, it shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. For Ataa Educational, there are three additional elements you should further examine:
- Risks: You should be aware of the 1 warning sign for Ataa Educational we've uncovered before considering an investment in the company.
- Future Earnings: How does 4292's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
- Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the SASE every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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About SASE:4292
Ataa Educational
Engages in the establishment of private and international, kindergarten, primary, intermediate, and secondary schools for boys and girls in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
Moderate growth potential unattractive dividend payer.