Jerónimo Martins SGPS' (ELI:JMT) Soft Earnings Don't Show The Whole Picture

Shareholders appeared unconcerned with Jerónimo Martins, SGPS, S.A.'s (ELI:JMT) lackluster earnings report last week. We think that the softer headline numbers might be getting counterbalanced by some positive underlying factors.

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Zooming In On Jerónimo Martins SGPS' Earnings

One key financial ratio used to measure how well a company converts its profit to free cash flow (FCF) is the accrual ratio. The accrual ratio subtracts the FCF from the profit for a given period, and divides the result by the average operating assets of the company over that time. This ratio tells us how much of a company's profit is not backed by free cashflow.

As a result, a negative accrual ratio is a positive for the company, and a positive accrual ratio is a negative. While having an accrual ratio above zero is of little concern, we do think it's worth noting when a company has a relatively high accrual ratio. Notably, there is some academic evidence that suggests that a high accrual ratio is a bad sign for near-term profits, generally speaking.

Over the twelve months to June 2025, Jerónimo Martins SGPS recorded an accrual ratio of -0.13. That indicates that its free cash flow was a fair bit more than its statutory profit. Indeed, in the last twelve months it reported free cash flow of €954m, well over the €615.0m it reported in profit. Jerónimo Martins SGPS' free cash flow improved over the last year, which is generally good to see.

That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.

Our Take On Jerónimo Martins SGPS' Profit Performance

As we discussed above, Jerónimo Martins SGPS has perfectly satisfactory free cash flow relative to profit. Because of this, we think Jerónimo Martins SGPS' earnings potential is at least as good as it seems, and maybe even better! And on top of that, its earnings per share have grown at 14% per year over the last three years. At the end of the day, it's essential to consider more than just the factors above, if you want to understand the company properly. While it's really important to consider how well a company's statutory earnings represent its true earnings power, it's also worth taking a look at what analysts are forecasting for the future. Luckily, you can check out what analysts are forecasting by clicking here.

Today we've zoomed in on a single data point to better understand the nature of Jerónimo Martins SGPS' profit. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. While it might take a little research on your behalf, you may find this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks with significant insider holdings to be useful.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.