Mabion (WSE:MAB) Is Posting Solid Earnings, But It Is Not All Good News

Solid profit numbers didn't seem to be enough to please Mabion S.A.'s (WSE:MAB) shareholders. We think that they might be concerned about some underlying details that our analysis found.

Check out our latest analysis for Mabion

Zooming In On Mabion's Earnings

As finance nerds would already know, the accrual ratio from cashflow is a key measure for assessing how well a company's free cash flow (FCF) matches its profit. In plain english, this ratio subtracts FCF from net profit, and divides that number by the company's average operating assets over that period. You could think of the accrual ratio from cashflow as the 'non-FCF profit ratio'.

Therefore, it's actually considered a good thing when a company has a negative accrual ratio, but a bad thing if its accrual ratio is positive. While having an accrual ratio above zero is of little concern, we do think it's worth noting when a company has a relatively high accrual ratio. To quote a 2014 paper by Lewellen and Resutek, "firms with higher accruals tend to be less profitable in the future".

Over the twelve months to March 2022, Mabion recorded an accrual ratio of 1.84. Statistically speaking, that's a real negative for future earnings. And indeed, during the period the company didn't produce any free cash flow whatsoever. In the last twelve months it actually had negative free cash flow, with an outflow of zł77m despite its profit of zł26.4m, mentioned above. We also note that Mabion's free cash flow was actually negative last year as well, so we could understand if shareholders were bothered by its outflow of zł77m. Importantly, we note an unusual tax situation, which we discuss below, has impacted the accruals ratio. This would certainly have contributed to the weak cash conversion.

That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.

An Unusual Tax Situation

In addition to the notable accrual ratio, we can see that Mabion received a tax benefit of zł12m. It's always a bit noteworthy when a company is paid by the tax man, rather than paying the tax man. We're sure the company was pleased with its tax benefit. And since it previously lost money, it may well simply indicate the realisation of past tax losses. However, the devil in the detail is that these kind of benefits only impact in the year they are booked, and are often one-off in nature. Assuming the tax benefit is not repeated every year, we could see its profitability drop noticeably, all else being equal. While we think it's good that the company has booked a tax benefit, it does mean that there's every chance the statutory profit will come in a lot higher than it would be if the income was adjusted for one-off factors.

Our Take On Mabion's Profit Performance

Mabion's accrual ratio indicates weak cashflow relative to earnings, which perhaps arises in part from the tax benefit it received this year. If the tax benefit is not repeated, then profit would drop next year, all else being equal. For all the reasons mentioned above, we think that, at a glance, Mabion's statutory profits could be considered to be low quality, because they are likely to give investors an overly positive impression of the company. If you'd like to know more about Mabion as a business, it's important to be aware of any risks it's facing. Be aware that Mabion is showing 3 warning signs in our investment analysis and 1 of those is concerning...

In this article we've looked at a number of factors that can impair the utility of profit numbers, and we've come away cautious. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.