Orlen Valuation

Is PKN undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of PKN when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: PKN (PLN55.4) is trading below our estimate of fair value (PLN193.98)

Significantly Below Fair Value: PKN is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for PKN?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

PKN key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.2x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA1.8x
PEG Ratio1x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does PKN's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for PKN vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average11.8x
BPCL Bharat Petroleum
7.6x-12.7%₹1.5t
5020 ENEOS Holdings
7.3x-2.2%JP¥2.4t
NESTE Neste Oyj
13.5x21.6%€12.9b
6505 Formosa Petrochemical
18.7x17.0%NT$498.2b
PKN Orlen
8x8.2%zł64.3b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: PKN is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8x) compared to the peer average (11.8x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does PKN's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Oil and Gas Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a0.7%
n/an/an/a
No. of CompaniesPE048121620

Fetching data

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a0.7%
n/an/an/a
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: PKN is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8x) compared to the European Oil and Gas industry average (8.1x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is PKN's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

PKN PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio8x
Fair PE Ration/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate PKN's Price-To-Earnings Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst PKN forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Currentzł55.40
zł78.27
+41.3%
16.1%zł105.37zł64.00n/a10
Oct ’25zł57.03
zł79.37
+39.2%
14.8%zł105.37zł65.90n/a10
Sep ’25zł64.34
zł78.24
+21.6%
11.8%zł94.74zł65.90n/a10
Aug ’25zł63.38
zł78.24
+23.5%
11.8%zł94.74zł65.90n/a10
Jul ’25zł67.89
zł78.94
+16.3%
12.0%zł94.74zł65.90n/a9
Jun ’25zł63.57
zł78.94
+24.2%
12.0%zł94.74zł65.90n/a9
May ’25zł66.44
zł80.44
+21.1%
11.0%zł94.74zł71.50n/a8
Apr ’25zł65.08
zł80.44
+23.6%
11.0%zł94.74zł71.50n/a8
Mar ’25zł63.14
zł79.15
+25.4%
13.0%zł95.30zł67.60n/a8
Feb ’25zł65.55
zł79.15
+20.7%
13.0%zł95.30zł67.60n/a8
Jan ’25zł65.50
zł79.78
+21.8%
17.7%zł105.00zł64.00n/a8
Dec ’24zł60.60
zł80.15
+32.3%
17.5%zł105.00zł64.00n/a8
Nov ’24zł66.50
zł80.85
+21.6%
18.0%zł105.00zł64.00n/a9
Oct ’24zł58.70
zł75.77
+29.1%
15.8%zł95.50zł60.00zł57.039
Sep ’24zł63.56
zł77.13
+21.4%
15.0%zł95.50zł60.00zł64.349
Aug ’24zł71.10
zł78.76
+10.8%
15.6%zł100.10zł61.00zł63.389
Jul ’24zł64.41
zł78.13
+21.3%
13.8%zł100.00zł61.00zł67.8910
Jun ’24zł62.38
zł77.39
+24.1%
13.3%zł100.00zł61.00zł63.5711
May ’24zł63.42
zł77.03
+21.5%
14.2%zł100.00zł57.00zł66.4411
Apr ’24zł58.24
zł76.62
+31.6%
14.9%zł100.00zł57.00zł65.0811
Mar ’24zł66.28
zł80.51
+21.5%
14.0%zł100.00zł60.00zł63.1410
Feb ’24zł62.88
zł80.51
+28.0%
14.0%zł100.00zł60.00zł65.5510
Jan ’24zł64.24
zł83.71
+30.3%
11.2%zł100.00zł67.00zł65.509
Dec ’23zł68.24
zł83.26
+22.0%
14.8%zł100.00zł62.00zł60.609
Nov ’23zł54.92
zł82.44
+50.1%
14.7%zł100.00zł62.00zł66.5010
Oct ’23zł53.54
zł88.20
+64.7%
7.6%zł97.00zł75.00zł58.708

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.


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