Orlen S.A.

WSE:PKN Stock Report

Market Cap: zł131.6b

Orlen Valuation

Is PKN undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Future Cash Flow Value

  • Significantly Below Future Cash Flow Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Future Cash Flow Value

What is the Fair Price of PKN when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Ultimate guide to DCF valuation for stock investing

Learn how to determine fair value like the best investors in the world.

Below Future Cash Flow Value: PKN (PLN113.36) is trading below our estimate of future cash flow value (PLN114.77)

Significantly Below Future Cash Flow Value: PKN is trading below future cash flow value, but not by a significant amount.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for PKN?

Key metric: As PKN is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for PKN. This is calculated by dividing PKN's market cap by their current earnings.
What is PKN's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio11.8x
Earningszł11.11b
Market Capzł131.60b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does PKN's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for PKN vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average37.1x
IOC Indian Oil
6.9x-13.72%₹2.5t
MPC Marathon Petroleum
14.2x6.90%US$56.9b
PSX Phillips 66
14.1x6.90%US$62.1b
NESTE Neste Oyj
113.2x38.22%€16.3b
PKN Orlen
11.8x1.37%zł131.6b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: PKN is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.8x) compared to the peer average (37.1x).

Historical Price to Earnings Ratio

Historical Price to Earnings Ratio compares a stock's price to its earnings over time. Higher ratios indicate that investors are willing to pay more for the stock.

Fetching historical data

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does PKN's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Oil and Gas Industry?

12 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
PKN 11.8xIndustry Avg. 15.4xNo. of Companies12PE0816243240+
12 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: PKN is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.8x) compared to the European Oil and Gas industry average (15.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is PKN's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

PKN PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio11.8x
Fair PE Ratio12.2x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: PKN is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.8x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.2x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst PKN forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Currentzł113.36
zł93.83
-17.23%
8.69%zł105.00zł80.50n/a9
Feb ’27zł107.96
zł90.58
-16.10%
10.39%zł105.00zł77.00n/a9
Jan ’27zł96.11
zł87.31
-9.16%
11.14%zł105.00zł73.30n/a9
Dec ’26zł94.39
zł86.63
-8.22%
11.97%zł105.00zł73.30n/a9
Nov ’26zł100.06
zł85.63
-14.42%
11.14%zł100.00zł73.30n/a9
Oct ’26zł87.85
zł83.86
-4.55%
12.29%zł100.00zł73.00n/a9
Sep ’26zł77.82
zł78.74
+1.19%
7.27%zł90.00zł73.00n/a9
Aug ’26zł82.45
zł78.41
-4.90%
6.93%zł90.00zł73.00n/a9
Jul ’26zł82.48
zł75.74
-8.17%
9.22%zł90.00zł64.00n/a9
Jun ’26zł73.54
zł71.97
-2.14%
12.05%zł90.00zł58.00n/a9
May ’26zł68.23
zł69.97
+2.55%
11.88%zł85.00zł58.00n/a9
Apr ’26zł68.95
zł68.85
-0.15%
12.18%zł85.00zł58.00n/a10
Mar ’26zł62.70
zł67.22
+7.20%
11.39%zł85.00zł58.00n/a10
Feb ’26zł53.79
zł70.25
+30.60%
12.92%zł87.36zł59.00zł107.9610
Jan ’26zł47.20
zł73.27
+55.24%
15.61%zł94.08zł61.50zł96.1110
Dec ’25zł51.02
zł75.40
+47.79%
18.26%zł105.37zł61.50zł94.3910
Nov ’25zł52.09
zł75.82
+45.55%
17.69%zł105.37zł61.50zł100.0610
Oct ’25zł57.03
zł79.37
+39.17%
14.77%zł105.37zł65.90zł87.8510
Sep ’25zł64.34
zł78.24
+21.61%
11.78%zł94.74zł65.90zł77.8210
Aug ’25zł63.38
zł78.24
+23.45%
11.78%zł94.74zł65.90zł82.4510
Jul ’25zł67.89
zł78.94
+16.27%
11.99%zł94.74zł65.90zł82.489
Jun ’25zł63.57
zł78.94
+24.17%
11.99%zł94.74zł65.90zł73.549
May ’25zł66.44
zł80.44
+21.08%
11.02%zł94.74zł71.50zł68.238
Apr ’25zł65.08
zł80.44
+23.61%
11.02%zł94.74zł71.50zł68.958
Mar ’25zł63.14
zł79.15
+25.36%
12.96%zł95.30zł67.60zł62.708
Feb ’25zł65.55
zł79.15
+20.75%
12.96%zł95.30zł67.60zł53.798
zł93.83
Fair Value
20.8% overvalued intrinsic discount
9
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.

Discover undervalued companies

7D

1Y

7D

1Y

7D

1Y

Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/02/24 03:53
End of Day Share Price 2026/02/24 00:00
Earnings2025/12/31
Annual Earnings2025/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Orlen S.A. is covered by 21 analysts. 9 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Robert BateBarclays
Yuriy KukhtanychBerenberg
Kamil KliszczBiuro maklerskie mBanku