Orlen Valuation
Is PKN undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?
Valuation Score
6/6Valuation Score 6/6
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast
Share Price vs Fair Value
What is the Fair Price of PKN when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.
Below Fair Value: PKN (PLN66.13) is trading below our estimate of fair value (PLN101.13)
Significantly Below Fair Value: PKN is trading below fair value by more than 20%.
Key Valuation Metric
Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for PKN?
Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.
| What is PKN's n/a Ratio? | |
|---|---|
| n/a | 0x |
| n/a | n/a |
| Market Cap | zł76.71b |
| Key Statistics | |
|---|---|
| Enterprise Value/Revenue | 0.2x |
| Enterprise Value/EBITDA | 1.5x |
| PEG Ratio | -0.3x |
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers
How does PKN's PE Ratio compare to its peers?
| Company | Forward PE | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peer Average | 13.6x | ||
NESTE Neste Oyj | 12.5x | 14.9% | €17.0b |
TUPRS Türkiye Petrol Rafinerileri | 7.2x | 2.2% | ₺387.9b |
BPCL Bharat Petroleum | 4.6x | -40.2% | ₹1.3t |
6505 Formosa Petrochemical | 30.3x | 23.5% | NT$681.1b |
PKN Orlen | 3.7x | -11.1% | zł76.7b |
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: PKN is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (3.7x) compared to the peer average (13.6x).
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry
How does PKN's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Oil and Gas Industry?
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: PKN is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (3.7x) compared to the European Oil and Gas industry average (8.3x).
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio
What is PKN's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
| Fair Ratio | |
|---|---|
| Current PE Ratio | 3.7x |
| Fair PE Ratio | 4.4x |
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: PKN is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (3.7x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (4.4x).
Analyst Price Targets
What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?
| Date | Share Price | Average 1Y Price Target | Dispersion | High | Low | 1Y Actual price | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current | zł66.13 | zł80.44 +21.6% | 11.0% | zł94.74 | zł71.50 | n/a | 8 |
| Apr ’25 | zł65.08 | zł80.44 +23.6% | 11.0% | zł94.74 | zł71.50 | n/a | 8 |
| Mar ’25 | zł63.14 | zł79.15 +25.4% | 13.0% | zł95.30 | zł67.60 | n/a | 8 |
| Feb ’25 | zł65.55 | zł79.15 +20.7% | 13.0% | zł95.30 | zł67.60 | n/a | 8 |
| Jan ’25 | zł65.50 | zł79.78 +21.8% | 17.7% | zł105.00 | zł64.00 | n/a | 8 |
| Dec ’24 | zł60.60 | zł80.15 +32.3% | 17.5% | zł105.00 | zł64.00 | n/a | 8 |
| Nov ’24 | zł66.50 | zł80.85 +21.6% | 18.0% | zł105.00 | zł64.00 | n/a | 9 |
| Oct ’24 | zł58.70 | zł75.77 +29.1% | 15.8% | zł95.50 | zł60.00 | n/a | 9 |
| Sep ’24 | zł63.56 | zł77.13 +21.4% | 15.0% | zł95.50 | zł60.00 | n/a | 9 |
| Aug ’24 | zł71.10 | zł78.76 +10.8% | 15.6% | zł100.10 | zł61.00 | n/a | 9 |
| Jul ’24 | zł64.41 | zł78.13 +21.3% | 13.8% | zł100.00 | zł61.00 | n/a | 10 |
| Jun ’24 | zł62.38 | zł77.39 +24.1% | 13.3% | zł100.00 | zł61.00 | n/a | 11 |
| May ’24 | zł63.42 | zł77.03 +21.5% | 14.2% | zł100.00 | zł57.00 | zł66.44 | 11 |
| Apr ’24 | zł58.24 | zł76.62 +31.6% | 14.9% | zł100.00 | zł57.00 | zł65.08 | 11 |
| Mar ’24 | zł66.28 | zł80.51 +21.5% | 14.0% | zł100.00 | zł60.00 | zł63.14 | 10 |
| Feb ’24 | zł62.88 | zł80.51 +28.0% | 14.0% | zł100.00 | zł60.00 | zł65.55 | 10 |
| Jan ’24 | zł64.24 | zł83.71 +30.3% | 11.2% | zł100.00 | zł67.00 | zł65.50 | 9 |
| Dec ’23 | zł68.24 | zł83.26 +22.0% | 14.8% | zł100.00 | zł62.00 | zł60.60 | 9 |
| Nov ’23 | zł54.92 | zł82.44 +50.1% | 14.7% | zł100.00 | zł62.00 | zł66.50 | 10 |
| Oct ’23 | zł53.54 | zł88.20 +64.7% | 7.6% | zł97.00 | zł75.00 | zł58.70 | 8 |
| Sep ’23 | zł57.20 | zł85.11 +48.8% | 10.0% | zł97.00 | zł70.00 | zł63.56 | 8 |
| Aug ’23 | zł76.10 | zł85.24 +12.0% | 10.7% | zł97.00 | zł70.00 | zł71.10 | 8 |
| Jul ’23 | zł68.02 | zł84.76 +24.6% | 10.3% | zł97.00 | zł70.00 | zł64.41 | 8 |
| Jun ’23 | zł72.18 | zł84.76 +17.4% | 10.3% | zł97.00 | zł70.00 | zł62.38 | 8 |
| May ’23 | zł75.32 | zł85.96 +14.1% | 12.6% | zł100.00 | zł65.00 | zł63.42 | 11 |
Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.