Orlen S.A.

WSE:PKN Stock Report

Market Cap: zł66.9b

Orlen Valuation

Is PKN undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of PKN when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Discounted Cash Flow
Simply Wall St
zł50.76
Fair Value
13.5% overvalued intrinsic discount
10
Number of Analysts

Below Fair Value: PKN (PLN57.59) is trading above our estimate of fair value (PLN50.76)

Significantly Below Fair Value: PKN is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for PKN?

Key metric: As PKN is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for PKN. This is calculated by dividing PKN's market cap by their current earnings.
What is PKN's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio17.8x
Earningszł3.75b
Market Capzł66.86b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does PKN's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for PKN vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average9.4x
IOC Indian Oil
15.2x36.2%₹1.6t
5020 ENEOS Holdings
8.7x7.0%JP¥2.2t
BPCL Bharat Petroleum
7.9x2.7%₹1.1t
TUPRS Türkiye Petrol Rafinerileri
5.9x-4.2%₺258.6b
PKN Orlen
17.8x14.4%zł66.9b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: PKN is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.8x) compared to the peer average (9.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does PKN's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Oil and Gas Industry?

6 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
PKN 17.8xIndustry Avg. 8.8xNo. of Companies15PE0612182430+
6 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: PKN is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.8x) compared to the European Oil and Gas industry average (8.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is PKN's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

PKN PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio17.8x
Fair PE Ratio31.2x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: PKN is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.8x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (31.2x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst PKN forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Currentzł57.59
zł70.25
+22.0%
12.9%zł87.36zł59.00n/a10
Feb ’26zł53.79
zł70.25
+30.6%
12.9%zł87.36zł59.00n/a10
Jan ’26zł47.20
zł73.27
+55.2%
15.6%zł94.08zł61.50n/a10
Dec ’25zł51.02
zł75.40
+47.8%
18.3%zł105.37zł61.50n/a10
Nov ’25zł52.09
zł75.82
+45.6%
17.7%zł105.37zł61.50n/a10
Oct ’25zł57.03
zł79.37
+39.2%
14.8%zł105.37zł65.90n/a10
Sep ’25zł64.34
zł78.24
+21.6%
11.8%zł94.74zł65.90n/a10
Aug ’25zł63.38
zł78.24
+23.5%
11.8%zł94.74zł65.90n/a10
Jul ’25zł67.89
zł78.94
+16.3%
12.0%zł94.74zł65.90n/a9
Jun ’25zł63.57
zł78.94
+24.2%
12.0%zł94.74zł65.90n/a9
May ’25zł66.44
zł80.44
+21.1%
11.0%zł94.74zł71.50n/a8
Apr ’25zł65.08
zł80.44
+23.6%
11.0%zł94.74zł71.50n/a8
Mar ’25zł63.14
zł79.15
+25.4%
13.0%zł95.30zł67.60n/a8
Feb ’25zł65.55
zł79.15
+20.7%
13.0%zł95.30zł67.60zł53.798
Jan ’25zł65.50
zł79.78
+21.8%
17.7%zł105.00zł64.00zł47.208
Dec ’24zł60.60
zł80.15
+32.3%
17.5%zł105.00zł64.00zł51.028
Nov ’24zł66.50
zł80.85
+21.6%
18.0%zł105.00zł64.00zł52.099
Oct ’24zł58.70
zł75.77
+29.1%
15.8%zł95.50zł60.00zł57.039
Sep ’24zł63.56
zł77.13
+21.4%
15.0%zł95.50zł60.00zł64.349
Aug ’24zł71.10
zł78.76
+10.8%
15.6%zł100.10zł61.00zł63.389
Jul ’24zł64.41
zł78.13
+21.3%
13.8%zł100.00zł61.00zł67.8910
Jun ’24zł62.38
zł77.39
+24.1%
13.3%zł100.00zł61.00zł63.5711
May ’24zł63.42
zł77.03
+21.5%
14.2%zł100.00zł57.00zł66.4411
Apr ’24zł58.24
zł76.62
+31.6%
14.9%zł100.00zł57.00zł65.0811
Mar ’24zł66.28
zł80.51
+21.5%
14.0%zł100.00zł60.00zł63.1410
Feb ’24zł62.88
zł80.51
+28.0%
14.0%zł100.00zł60.00zł65.5510
Analyst Price Target
Consensus Narrative from 10 Analysts
zł70.25
Fair Value
18.0% undervalued intrinsic discount
10
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

Discover undervalued companies

7D

1Y

7D

1Y

7D

1Y

Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/02/16 11:08
End of Day Share Price 2025/02/14 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Orlen S.A. is covered by 27 analysts. 7 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Robert BateBarclays
Yuriy KukhtanychBerenberg
Kamil KliszczBiuro maklerskie mBanku