Orlen Past Earnings Performance
Past criteria checks 3/6
Orlen's earnings have been declining at an average annual rate of -18.1%, while the Oil and Gas industry saw earnings growing at 8.4% annually. Revenues have been growing at an average rate of 11.5% per year. Orlen's return on equity is 8.6%, and it has net margins of 4.4%.
Key information
-18.07%
Earnings growth rate
-32.89%
EPS growth rate
| Oil and Gas Industry Growth | 23.98% |
| Revenue growth rate | 11.52% |
| Return on equity | 8.62% |
| Net Margin | 4.45% |
| Next Earnings Update | 05 Nov 2026 |
Recent past performance updates
Analysis Article • Jun 05
We Think Orlen's (WSE:PKN) Healthy Earnings Might Be Conservative
Investors signalled that they were pleased with Orlen S.A.'s ( WSE:PKN ) most recent earnings report. Looking deeper at...Analysis Article • Nov 29
Orlen (WSE:PKN) Is Posting Promising Earnings But The Good News Doesn’t Stop There
Despite posting healthy earnings, Orlen S.A.'s ( WSE:PKN ) stock has been quite weak. Our analysis suggests that there...Recent updates
Narrative Update • Sep 17
PKN: Future Returns Will Balance Defense Expansion With Firmer Profit Margins
Analysts have raised their price target for Orlen from PLN 144.13 to PLN 154.03, highlighting updated assumptions that include a slightly higher discount rate, lower expected revenue growth, a moderately stronger profit margin and a marginally higher future P/E multiple. What’s in the News for Orlen Media reports indicate that the State Treasury is considering selling a portion of its shares in Polska Grupa Zbrojeniowa S.A. and that Orlen is viewed as the leading candidate to acquire up to 45% of PGZ.
Narrative Update • Sep 03
PKN: Higher Margins And Lower P/E Will Support Stronger Future Earnings Profile
Analysts have nudged their fair value estimate for Orlen up from PLN 175.00 to PLN 180.00. This reflects updated assumptions on the discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin and future P/E multiples.
Narrative Update • Aug 20
PKN: Higher P/E Assumptions Will Likely Expose Overvaluation Risk
Analysts have lifted their price target for Orlen from PLN 94 to PLN 103, citing updated assumptions for the discount rate, revenue trends, profit margins and future P/E as the key drivers of the revision. What’s in the News for Orlen Analysts adjusted their discount rate assumptions for Orlen, which directly influenced the updated price target level.Narrative Update • Aug 06
PKN: Future Returns Will Balance Firmer Margins With Softer Revenue Declines
Analysts have lifted their price target for Orlen from PLN 133.89 to PLN 144.13, citing updated assumptions that reflect a smaller implied decline in revenue, a higher profit margin and a slightly lower forward P/E multiple. What’s in the News for Orlen No recent news items for Orlen are available from the provided sources as of 6 Aug 2026.Narrative Update • Jul 22
PKN: Higher Profit Margins Will Support Stronger Future Earnings Profile
Analysts now set their price target for Orlen at PLN 175, up from PLN 146. They cite updated assumptions for revenue growth, profit margins, discount rate and future P/E as key inputs in their refreshed valuation work.Narrative Update • Jul 08
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Analysts have raised their price target for Orlen from PLN 87.00 to PLN 94.00, citing updated assumptions that include a revised discount rate, a lower P/E multiple, and adjusted expectations for revenue growth and profit margins. What's in the News for Orlen No recent Orlen specific news items or key developments are provided in the available sources at this time.Narrative Update • Jun 24
PKN: Future Returns Will Reflect Tighter Margins And Calmer Revenue Contraction
Analysts have lifted their Orlen price target from PLN 131.11 to PLN 133.89, citing updated assumptions around revenue trends, profit margins and a slightly lower projected future P/E multiple. What's in the News for Orlen No recent Orlen news items were available in the provided sources.Narrative Update • Jun 07
PKN: Future Returns Will Reflect Balanced UBS Upgrade And Energa Recapitalisation Risk
Analysts have raised their fair value estimate for Orlen from PLN 127.33 to PLN 131.11, citing updated assumptions on long term revenue trends, margins and future P/E, along with recent Street research that has become more positive on the stock. What's in the News No recent news stories, periodical coverage or key developments were provided for Orlen in the supplied sources.Analysis Article • Jun 05
We Think Orlen's (WSE:PKN) Healthy Earnings Might Be Conservative
Investors signalled that they were pleased with Orlen S.A.'s ( WSE:PKN ) most recent earnings report. Looking deeper at...Narrative Update • May 10
PKN: Future Returns Will Depend On Risky Energa Recapitalisation Plan
Analysts have lifted their fair value estimate for Orlen to PLN 127.33 from PLN 119.22, citing updated assumptions on revenue growth, profit margins and future P/E, supported by recent research that has taken a more positive stance on the stock. Analyst Commentary Bullish Takeaways Bullish analysts view the higher fair value estimate of PLN 127.33 as support for a more constructive stance on the stock, arguing that current pricing does not fully reflect updated assumptions on revenue and margins.Narrative Update • Apr 26
PKN: Future Returns Will Hinge On Energa Integration And Margin Resilience
Analysts have adjusted their PLN price targets on Orlen only slightly, with a modest recalibration in discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin and future P/E assumptions that reflects a mixed set of recent views, including a more positive stance from UBS and a more cautious one from Oddo BHF. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Orlen points to a split in opinion, with some analysts turning more optimistic and others taking a more cautious stance.Narrative Update • Apr 06
PKN: Future Returns Will Likely Soften As Margin Resilience Proves Overstated
Analysts have raised their Orlen price target from PLN 114.33 to about PLN 119.22, reflecting updated assumptions on fair value, slightly higher profit margins and a marginally richer future P/E multiple, with recent research including both an upgrade and a downgrade informing the new view. Analyst Commentary Bullish Takeaways Bullish analysts link their upgrade to a view that current valuation leaves some room for the shares to move closer to their refreshed fair value assumptions, anchored around the PLN 119.22 target.New Narrative • Mar 26
Regulated Energy Projects And LNG Expansion Will Support A Stronger Long Term Outlook
Catalysts About Orlen Orlen is an integrated energy and fuels group active in upstream, refining, petrochemicals, power generation, retail and gas trading. What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?Narrative Update • Mar 22
PKN: Future Returns Will Likely Soften As Margin Assumptions Prove Fragile
Analysts have lifted their fair value estimate for Orlen from PLN 95.58 to PLN 114.33, citing updated assumptions on revenue growth, profit margins and future P/E, as well as a mix of recent bullish and bearish Street calls. Analyst Commentary Bullish Takeaways Bullish analysts link the higher fair value estimate of PLN 114.33 to expectations that Orlen can sustain healthier profit margins than previously assumed.New Narrative • Mar 11
Large CapEx And Refining Margin Normalization Will Pressure Long Term Earnings Outlook
Catalysts About Orlen Orlen is an integrated energy and fuels group active in upstream, refining, petrochemicals, power generation and retail across several European markets. What are the underlying business or industry changes driving this perspective?Narrative Update • Mar 06
PKN: Future Returns Will Likely Soften As Execution Risks Intensify
Analysts have raised their fair value estimate for Orlen to PLN 95.58 from PLN 93.28, citing updated assumptions on revenue growth, profit margins and future P/E, even as some recent research has turned more cautious on the shares. Analyst Commentary Bullish Takeaways Bullish analysts point to the higher fair value estimate of PLN 95.58 as support for their view that current pricing may not fully reflect the updated revenue and margin assumptions built into their models.Narrative Update • Feb 19
PKN: Future Returns Will Likely Weaken As Margin Risks Intensify
Analysts have nudged their fair value estimate for Orlen up from PLN 91.47 to PLN 93.28, citing slightly firmer profit margin assumptions and a modestly higher future P/E, even as at least one recent report has turned more cautious on the shares. Analyst Commentary Bullish Takeaways Bullish analysts view the higher fair value estimate of PLN 93.28 as support for the idea that current pricing may not fully reflect Orlen's earnings power under the updated profit margin assumptions.Analysis Article • Feb 07
Why We're Not Concerned About Orlen S.A.'s (WSE:PKN) Share Price
With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 20x Orlen S.A. ( WSE:PKN ) may be sending very bearish signals at the...Narrative Update • Feb 05
PKN: Future Returns Will Likely Weaken As Earnings Multiple Compresses
Analysts have lifted their fair value estimate for Orlen from €87.31 to €91.47 per share, citing updated assumptions around a smaller revenue decline, a slightly higher profit margin and a lower future P/E multiple, even as at least one firm has turned more cautious on the shares. Analyst Commentary Bullish Takeaways Bullish analysts highlight the updated view on a smaller revenue decline as a support for the higher fair value estimate of €91.47 per share, seeing this as a sign that the earnings base used in their models may be more resilient than previously assumed.Narrative Update • Jan 22
PKN: Future Returns Will Likely Lag As P/E Stays Elevated
Analysts have kept their target price for Orlen broadly in line with prior levels, citing relatively unchanged fair value at 87.31, a stable 9.24% discount rate, and only small tweaks to assumptions around revenue trends, profit margin and future P/E of 12.05x. Valuation Changes Fair Value: Fair value per share is unchanged at PLN 87.31.Narrative Update • Jan 08
PKN: Future Returns Will Likely Disappoint As Earnings Multiple Stays Elevated
Analysts have kept their price target for Orlen unchanged at €87.31, reflecting steady assumptions on fair value, discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin and future P/E, with no new Street research prompting a revision. Valuation Changes Fair Value: Fair value per share remains unchanged at €87.31, with no adjustment to the underlying model inputs.Analysis Article • Jan 04
An Intrinsic Calculation For Orlen S.A. (WSE:PKN) Suggests It's 26% Undervalued
Key Insights The projected fair value for Orlen is zł136 based on Dividend Discount Model Orlen's zł101 share price...Narrative Update • Dec 18
PKN: Future Returns Will Remain Balanced As Revenue And Margins Slightly Weaken
Analysts have modestly adjusted their price target on Orlen higher to reflect a fair value of $87.31 per share, as they reiterate stable discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin and future P E assumptions. What's in the News Orlen S.A. has scheduled a Special or Extraordinary Shareholders Meeting for November 13, 2025, at 11:00 Central European Standard Time to address key corporate matters requiring shareholder approval (Key Developments).Analysis Article • Dec 17
Returns At Orlen (WSE:PKN) Are On The Way Up
Finding a business that has the potential to grow substantially is not easy, but it is possible if we look at a few key...Narrative Update • Dec 04
PKN: Earnings Multiple Will Rise As Revenue And Margins Slightly Weaken
Analysts have nudged their price target on Orlen higher to approximately $87.31 from about $85.86, citing a modestly richer future earnings multiple that more than offsets slightly weaker revenue growth and profit margin expectations. What's in the News Orlen S.A. has scheduled a Special and Extraordinary Shareholders Meeting for November 13, 2025, at 11:00 Central European Standard Time.Analysis Article • Nov 29
Orlen (WSE:PKN) Is Posting Promising Earnings But The Good News Doesn’t Stop There
Despite posting healthy earnings, Orlen S.A.'s ( WSE:PKN ) stock has been quite weak. Our analysis suggests that there...Narrative Update • Nov 20
PKN: Profit Margins Will Improve While Revenue Decline Persists Through 2025 Shareholder Meeting
Narrative Update on Orlen: Analyst Price Target Change Analysts have slightly raised their price target for Orlen from PLN 85.63 to PLN 85.86, citing improved profit margin expectations and a modest adjustment to the discount rate. What's in the News Orlen S.A. has scheduled a Special/Extraordinary Shareholders Meeting for November 13, 2025, at 11:00 Central European Standard Time (Key Developments).Narrative Update • Nov 05
PKN: Profit Margins Will Improve Despite Weakening Revenue Outlook By Shareholder Meeting
Analysts have raised their fair value estimate for Orlen from PLN 83.86 to PLN 85.63, citing improved profit margin forecasts and a slightly higher future price-to-earnings expectation. This adjustment comes despite a modest downward revision in revenue growth outlook.Analysis Article • Oct 28
Orlen (WSE:PKN) Takes On Some Risk With Its Use Of Debt
Warren Buffett famously said, 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' When we think about how risky a company...Narrative Update • Oct 22
Analysts Maintain Orlen Price Target as Valuation Metrics Remain Stable Ahead of Shareholder Meeting
Analysts have maintained Orlen's price target at PLN 83.86, citing consistent expectations for future profitability and revenue growth in spite of industry headwinds. What's in the News Orlen S.A. will hold a Special/Extraordinary Shareholders Meeting on October 28, 2025, at 11:00 Central European Standard Time (Key Developments).Narrative Update • Oct 08
Renewable Energy Focus And Funding Diversification Will Improve Future Performance
Analysts have raised their price target for Orlen from PLN 80.08 to PLN 83.86. This update cites an improved fair value assessment and a modest increase in projected profit margins, even though revenue growth expectations are slightly lower.Analysis Article • Oct 01
Orlen S.A.'s (WSE:PKN) Intrinsic Value Is Potentially 42% Above Its Share Price
Key Insights The projected fair value for Orlen is zł123 based on Dividend Discount Model Orlen is estimated to be 30...Narrative Update • Sep 23
Renewable Energy Focus And Funding Diversification Will Improve Future Performance
Despite a further deterioration in consensus revenue growth forecasts, Orlen’s net profit margin has improved, supporting a modest increase in analyst fair value to PLN80.08. What's in the News Orlen will not acquire all or part of GA Polyolefins shares, but remains open to further discussions on asset utilization.
New Narrative • Jan 19
Operations Diversification And Retail Expansion Will Build Future Resilience
Diversified operations and strategic investments aim to stabilize Orlen's revenue and boost capital efficiency and net margins.Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
How Orlen makes and spends money. Based on latest reported earnings, on an LTM basis.
Earnings and Revenue History
| Date | Revenue | Earnings | G+A Expenses | R&D Expenses |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 26 | 285,626 | 12,703 | 22,914 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 26 | 269,946 | 6,451 | 22,356 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 25 | 267,827 | 2,531 | 21,825 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 25 | 270,556 | 7,528 | 21,487 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 25 | 277,485 | 5,615 | 21,470 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 25 | 286,204 | 4,207 | 21,096 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 24 | 294,886 | 2,826 | 21,248 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 24 | 317,380 | 3,992 | 21,808 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 24 | 328,901 | 8,331 | 21,791 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 24 | 338,420 | 14,376 | 22,169 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 23 | 371,916 | 20,922 | 21,916 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 23 | 380,563 | 38,566 | 20,422 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 23 | 374,021 | 48,684 | 19,049 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 23 | 352,796 | 46,231 | 17,003 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 22 | 282,415 | 39,677 | 15,021 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 22 | 217,080 | 25,202 | 13,292 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 22 | 180,607 | 13,432 | 12,265 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 22 | 152,226 | 12,047 | 11,729 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 21 | 131,341 | 11,122 | 11,208 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 21 | 113,602 | 6,979 | 11,009 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 21 | 101,078 | 4,721 | 10,607 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 21 | 88,665 | 6,844 | 10,067 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 20 | 86,180 | 2,755 | 9,613 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 20 | 90,505 | 3,340 | 8,933 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 20 | 95,816 | 3,955 | 8,565 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 20 | 108,034 | 1,207 | 8,437 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 19 | 111,203 | 4,300 | 8,204 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 19 | 113,123 | 4,424 | 7,631 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 19 | 114,238 | 5,221 | 7,176 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 19 | 111,711 | 5,363 | 6,708 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 18 | 109,706 | 5,556 | 6,335 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 18 | 105,020 | 6,440 | 6,256 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 18 | 99,406 | 5,980 | 6,148 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 18 | 95,730 | 5,777 | 5,973 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 17 | 95,364 | 6,655 | 5,864 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 17 | 93,532 | 6,853 | 5,692 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 17 | 89,885 | 6,777 | 5,570 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 17 | 86,215 | 6,844 | 5,592 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 16 | 79,553 | 5,261 | 5,551 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 16 | 76,738 | 3,391 | 5,605 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 16 | 79,123 | 2,659 | 5,550 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 16 | 84,544 | 2,418 | 5,564 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 15 | 88,336 | 2,837 | 5,523 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 15 | 93,151 | 1,702 | 5,462 | 0 |
Quality Earnings: PKN has a large one-off loss of PLN15.0B impacting its last 12 months of financial results to 30th June, 2026.
Growing Profit Margin: PKN's current net profit margins (4.4%) are higher than last year (2%).
Free Cash Flow vs Earnings Analysis
Past Earnings Growth Analysis
Earnings Trend: PKN's earnings have declined by 18.1% per year over the past 5 years.
Accelerating Growth: PKN's earnings growth over the past year (126.2%) exceeds its 5-year average (-18.1% per year).
Earnings vs Industry: PKN earnings growth over the past year (126.2%) exceeded the Oil and Gas industry 47.2%.
Return on Equity
High ROE: PKN's Return on Equity (8.6%) is considered low.
Return on Assets
Return on Capital Employed
Discover strong past performing companies
Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/09/22 17:35 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/09/22 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/06/30 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
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| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
| |
| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.
Learn about the who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.
Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
Orlen S.A. is covered by 19 analysts. 9 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Robert Bate | Barclays |
| Yuriy Kukhtanych | Berenberg |
| Kamil Kliszcz | Biuro maklerskie mBanku |