Rafako S.A. (WSE:RFK) Investors Are Less Pessimistic Than Expected

There wouldn't be many who think Rafako S.A.'s (WSE:RFK) price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 0.4x is worth a mention when the median P/S for the Machinery industry in Poland is similar at about 0.5x. Although, it's not wise to simply ignore the P/S without explanation as investors may be disregarding a distinct opportunity or a costly mistake.

See our latest analysis for Rafako

What Does Rafako's Recent Performance Look Like?

For example, consider that Rafako's financial performance has been poor lately as its revenue has been in decline. One possibility is that the P/S is moderate because investors think the company might still do enough to be in line with the broader industry in the near future. If not, then existing shareholders may be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.

Want the full picture on earnings, revenue and cash flow for the company? Then our free report on Rafako will help you shine a light on its historical performance.

What Are Revenue Growth Metrics Telling Us About The P/S?

Rafako's P/S ratio would be typical for a company that's only expected to deliver moderate growth, and importantly, perform in line with the industry.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 20% decrease to the company's top line. As a result, revenue from three years ago have also fallen 74% overall. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of revenue growth.

Weighing that medium-term revenue trajectory against the broader industry's one-year forecast for expansion of 21% shows it's an unpleasant look.

In light of this, it's somewhat alarming that Rafako's P/S sits in line with the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. There's a good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.

The Key Takeaway

While the price-to-sales ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of revenue expectations.

The fact that Rafako currently trades at a P/S on par with the rest of the industry is surprising to us since its recent revenues have been in decline over the medium-term, all while the industry is set to grow. When we see revenue heading backwards in the context of growing industry forecasts, it'd make sense to expect a possible share price decline on the horizon, sending the moderate P/S lower. Unless the the circumstances surrounding the recent medium-term improve, it wouldn't be wrong to expect a a difficult period ahead for the company's shareholders.

Having said that, be aware Rafako is showing 3 warning signs in our investment analysis, and 2 of those are potentially serious.

Of course, profitable companies with a history of great earnings growth are generally safer bets. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.