Bank Millennium S.A. (WSE:MIL) First-Quarter Results Just Came Out: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For This Year

It's been a good week for Bank Millennium S.A. (WSE:MIL) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest quarterly results, and the shares gained 2.7% to zł14.74. Revenues came in 4.5% below expectations, at zł1.6b. Statutory earnings per share were relatively better off, with a per-share profit of zł0.59 being roughly in line with analyst estimates. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

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Following last week's earnings report, Bank Millennium's five analysts are forecasting 2025 revenues to be zł6.32b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to decline 20% to zł0.51 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of zł6.63b and earnings per share (EPS) of zł1.21 in 2025. The analysts seem less optimistic after the recent results, reducing their revenue forecasts and making a large cut to earnings per share numbers.

Check out our latest analysis for Bank Millennium

The analysts made no major changes to their price target of zł12.73, suggesting the downgrades are not expected to have a long-term impact on Bank Millennium's valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Bank Millennium at zł14.90 per share, while the most bearish prices it at zł10.90. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 1.6% by the end of 2025. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 17% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 2.8% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Bank Millennium is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Bank Millennium. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Bank Millennium analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for Bank Millennium that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.