Mercury NZ Limited

NZSE:MCY Stock Report

Market Cap: NZ$9.4b

Mercury NZ Valuation

Is MCY undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of MCY when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: MCY (NZ$6.69) is trading below our estimate of fair value (NZ$15.28)

Significantly Below Fair Value: MCY is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for MCY?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

MCY key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.3x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA16.9x
PEG Ratio6.4x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does MCY's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for MCY vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average38.3x
CEN Contact Energy
28.7x4.4%NZ$6.7b
MNW Manawa Energy
71.5x20.2%NZ$1.7b
GNE Genesis Energy
17.3x8.0%NZ$2.3b
MEL Meridian Energy
35.7x5.8%NZ$15.3b
MCY Mercury NZ
32.3x5.0%NZ$9.4b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: MCY is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (32.3x) compared to the peer average (38.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does MCY's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Electric Utilities Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a1.3%
 n/an/an/a
No. of CompaniesPE048121620

Fetching data

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a1.3%
 n/an/an/a
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: MCY is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (32.3x) compared to the Global Electric Utilities industry average (14.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is MCY's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

MCY PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio32.3x
Fair PE Ratio33.6x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: MCY is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (32.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (33.6x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst MCY forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentNZ$6.69
NZ$6.60
-1.3%
10.1%NZ$7.50NZ$5.60n/a5
Oct ’25NZ$6.22
NZ$6.47
+4.0%
8.1%NZ$7.07NZ$5.60n/a5
Sep ’25NZ$6.25
NZ$6.47
+3.5%
8.1%NZ$7.07NZ$5.60n/a5
Aug ’25NZ$6.95
NZ$6.64
-4.5%
9.3%NZ$7.37NZ$5.60n/a5
Jul ’25NZ$6.71
NZ$6.64
-1.0%
9.6%NZ$7.47NZ$5.60n/a5
Jun ’25NZ$6.68
NZ$6.41
-4.0%
10.7%NZ$7.53NZ$5.40n/a5
May ’25NZ$6.34
NZ$6.39
+0.9%
10.3%NZ$7.45NZ$5.40n/a5
Apr ’25NZ$6.93
NZ$6.33
-8.7%
14.4%NZ$7.63NZ$5.20n/a5
Mar ’25NZ$6.87
NZ$6.27
-8.7%
13.3%NZ$7.37NZ$5.20n/a5
Feb ’25NZ$6.77
NZ$6.08
-10.2%
13.2%NZ$7.18NZ$5.13n/a5
Jan ’25NZ$6.60
NZ$5.99
-9.2%
13.4%NZ$6.96NZ$4.89n/a5
Dec ’24NZ$6.26
NZ$5.99
-4.3%
13.4%NZ$6.96NZ$4.89n/a5
Nov ’24NZ$5.68
NZ$6.13
+8.1%
14.6%NZ$7.00NZ$4.91n/a5
Oct ’24NZ$6.10
NZ$6.32
+3.6%
13.5%NZ$7.29NZ$5.20NZ$6.225
Sep ’24NZ$6.17
NZ$6.28
+1.8%
12.9%NZ$7.11NZ$5.20NZ$6.255
Aug ’24NZ$6.54
NZ$6.31
-3.5%
14.1%NZ$7.15NZ$5.00NZ$6.955
Jul ’24NZ$6.50
NZ$6.28
-3.4%
14.2%NZ$7.15NZ$5.00NZ$6.715
Jun ’24NZ$6.55
NZ$6.28
-4.2%
14.2%NZ$7.15NZ$5.00NZ$6.685
May ’24NZ$6.40
NZ$6.25
-2.3%
14.7%NZ$7.15NZ$5.00NZ$6.345
Apr ’24NZ$6.31
NZ$6.25
-0.9%
14.8%NZ$7.30NZ$5.00NZ$6.935
Mar ’24NZ$6.37
NZ$6.34
-0.5%
14.7%NZ$7.30NZ$5.00NZ$6.875
Feb ’24NZ$6.23
NZ$6.27
+0.6%
16.8%NZ$7.28NZ$4.80NZ$6.775
Jan ’24NZ$5.56
NZ$6.20
+11.4%
16.4%NZ$7.20NZ$4.80NZ$6.605
Dec ’23NZ$5.55
NZ$6.20
+11.6%
16.4%NZ$7.20NZ$4.80NZ$6.265
Nov ’23NZ$5.77
NZ$6.27
+8.7%
15.1%NZ$7.20NZ$4.80NZ$5.685
Oct ’23NZ$5.70
NZ$6.32
+10.9%
15.9%NZ$7.29NZ$4.80NZ$6.105

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.

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