Meridian Energy Limited

NZSE:MEL Stock Report

Market Cap: NZ$15.4b

Meridian Energy Valuation

Is MEL undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of MEL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: MEL (NZ$5.91) is trading below our estimate of fair value (NZ$12.7)

Significantly Below Fair Value: MEL is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for MEL?

Key metric: As MEL is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for MEL. This is calculated by dividing MEL's market cap by their current earnings.
What is MEL's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio35.9x
EarningsNZ$429.00m
Market CapNZ$15.39b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does MEL's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for MEL vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average34.4x
CEN Contact Energy
29.3x4.4%NZ$6.9b
MCY Mercury NZ
32.4x5.0%NZ$9.5b
VCT Vector
49.3x17.5%NZ$3.8b
NHPC NHPC
26.8x28.9%₹803.7b
MEL Meridian Energy
35.9x6.6%NZ$15.4b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: MEL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (35.9x) compared to the peer average (34.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does MEL's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Renewable Energy Industry?

18 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
MEL 35.9xIndustry Avg. 14.5xNo. of Companies39PE01224364860+
18 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: MEL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (35.9x) compared to the Global Renewable Energy industry average (14.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is MEL's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

MEL PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio35.9x
Fair PE Ratio35.3x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: MEL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (35.9x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (35.3x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst MEL forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentNZ$5.91
NZ$6.54
+10.8%
10.5%NZ$7.30NZ$5.50n/a5
Nov ’25NZ$5.87
NZ$6.53
+11.3%
10.3%NZ$7.30NZ$5.50n/a5
Oct ’25NZ$6.01
NZ$6.54
+8.8%
11.7%NZ$7.55NZ$5.50n/a5
Sep ’25NZ$6.34
NZ$6.56
+3.4%
11.9%NZ$7.55NZ$5.50n/a5
Aug ’25NZ$6.54
NZ$6.36
-2.8%
8.6%NZ$6.90NZ$5.50n/a5
Jul ’25NZ$6.60
NZ$6.35
-3.8%
8.8%NZ$7.00NZ$5.50n/a5
Jun ’25NZ$6.76
NZ$6.00
-11.2%
5.9%NZ$6.52NZ$5.50n/a5
May ’25NZ$6.00
NZ$5.86
-2.4%
10.0%NZ$6.52NZ$4.80n/a5
Apr ’25NZ$5.91
NZ$5.40
-8.6%
11.5%NZ$6.50NZ$4.80n/a5
Mar ’25NZ$5.90
NZ$5.39
-8.6%
11.4%NZ$6.50NZ$4.80n/a5
Feb ’25NZ$5.60
NZ$5.34
-4.7%
13.1%NZ$6.60NZ$4.75n/a5
Jan ’25NZ$5.54
NZ$5.29
-4.5%
13.4%NZ$6.60NZ$4.75n/a5
Dec ’24NZ$5.20
NZ$5.29
+1.7%
13.4%NZ$6.60NZ$4.75n/a5
Nov ’24NZ$4.89
NZ$5.40
+10.5%
13.0%NZ$6.70NZ$4.77NZ$5.875
Oct ’24NZ$5.14
NZ$5.55
+7.9%
11.7%NZ$6.70NZ$4.80NZ$6.015
Sep ’24NZ$5.27
NZ$5.48
+4.0%
10.4%NZ$6.50NZ$4.80NZ$6.345
Aug ’24NZ$5.51
NZ$5.45
-1.1%
12.5%NZ$6.66NZ$4.60NZ$6.545
Jul ’24NZ$5.60
NZ$5.44
-2.8%
11.6%NZ$6.50NZ$4.60NZ$6.605
Jun ’24NZ$5.45
NZ$5.46
+0.3%
12.5%NZ$6.65NZ$4.60NZ$6.765
May ’24NZ$5.42
NZ$5.44
+0.4%
12.7%NZ$6.65NZ$4.60NZ$6.005
Apr ’24NZ$5.25
NZ$5.45
+3.8%
13.9%NZ$6.82NZ$4.60NZ$5.915
Mar ’24NZ$5.35
NZ$5.47
+2.2%
14.3%NZ$6.82NZ$4.60NZ$5.905
Feb ’24NZ$5.40
NZ$5.51
+2.0%
15.6%NZ$7.01NZ$4.60NZ$5.605
Jan ’24NZ$5.24
NZ$5.46
+4.2%
15.8%NZ$7.01NZ$4.60NZ$5.545
Dec ’23NZ$4.94
NZ$5.42
+9.9%
16.7%NZ$7.01NZ$4.40NZ$5.205
Nov ’23NZ$4.82
NZ$5.36
+11.2%
17.9%NZ$7.01NZ$4.40NZ$4.895

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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