Genesis Energy Limited

NZSE:GNE Stock Report

Market Cap: NZ$2.4b

Genesis Energy Valuation

Is GNE undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of GNE when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: GNE (NZ$2.19) is trading above our estimate of fair value (NZ$1.79)

Significantly Below Fair Value: GNE is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for GNE?

Key metric: As GNE is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for GNE. This is calculated by dividing GNE's market cap by their current earnings.
What is GNE's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio18.2x
EarningsNZ$131.10m
Market CapNZ$2.38b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does GNE's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for GNE vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average38.1x
CEN Contact Energy
29.3x4.4%NZ$6.9b
MCY Mercury NZ
32.4x5.0%NZ$9.5b
VCT Vector
49.3x17.5%NZ$3.8b
605011 Hangzhou Cogeneration Group
41.6xn/aCN¥9.1b
GNE Genesis Energy
18.2x8.5%NZ$2.4b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: GNE is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18.2x) compared to the peer average (38.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does GNE's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Electric Utilities Industry?

9 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
GNE 18.2xIndustry Avg. 14.5xNo. of Companies28PE0816243240+
9 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: GNE is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18.2x) compared to the Global Electric Utilities industry average (14.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is GNE's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

GNE PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio18.2x
Fair PE Ratio33.3x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: GNE is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (33.3x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst GNE forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentNZ$2.19
NZ$2.57
+17.4%
13.8%NZ$3.15NZ$2.08n/a5
Nov ’25NZ$2.12
NZ$2.54
+19.6%
12.1%NZ$3.00NZ$2.08n/a5
Oct ’25NZ$2.13
NZ$2.54
+19.3%
10.1%NZ$2.83NZ$2.08n/a5
Sep ’25NZ$2.21
NZ$2.54
+15.0%
10.1%NZ$2.83NZ$2.08n/a5
Aug ’25NZ$2.19
NZ$2.52
+14.9%
8.6%NZ$2.78NZ$2.13n/a5
Jul ’25NZ$2.17
NZ$2.55
+17.8%
9.5%NZ$2.87NZ$2.13n/a5
Jun ’25NZ$2.10
NZ$2.56
+21.7%
9.8%NZ$2.90NZ$2.13n/a5
May ’25NZ$2.35
NZ$2.72
+16.1%
8.9%NZ$3.05NZ$2.30n/a5
Apr ’25NZ$2.46
NZ$2.69
+9.2%
7.5%NZ$2.88NZ$2.30n/a5
Mar ’25NZ$2.47
NZ$2.69
+9.1%
7.7%NZ$2.90NZ$2.30n/a5
Feb ’25NZ$2.54
NZ$2.66
+4.6%
7.2%NZ$2.85NZ$2.29n/a5
Jan ’25NZ$2.51
NZ$2.62
+4.4%
6.6%NZ$2.75NZ$2.29n/a5
Dec ’24NZ$2.37
NZ$2.60
+9.8%
4.2%NZ$2.74NZ$2.45n/a5
Nov ’24NZ$2.31
NZ$2.62
+13.6%
7.0%NZ$2.95NZ$2.40NZ$2.125
Oct ’24NZ$2.44
NZ$2.69
+10.1%
6.3%NZ$3.01NZ$2.52NZ$2.135
Sep ’24NZ$2.51
NZ$2.68
+6.9%
6.1%NZ$3.00NZ$2.52NZ$2.215
Aug ’24NZ$2.71
NZ$2.89
+6.7%
8.9%NZ$3.27NZ$2.60NZ$2.194
Jul ’24NZ$2.73
NZ$2.87
+5.0%
8.6%NZ$3.25NZ$2.60NZ$2.174
Jun ’24NZ$2.73
NZ$2.87
+5.0%
8.6%NZ$3.25NZ$2.60NZ$2.104
May ’24NZ$2.75
NZ$2.84
+3.4%
8.6%NZ$3.25NZ$2.60NZ$2.354
Apr ’24NZ$2.77
NZ$2.88
+3.8%
7.7%NZ$3.21NZ$2.60NZ$2.465
Mar ’24NZ$2.90
NZ$2.89
-0.5%
8.7%NZ$3.29NZ$2.60NZ$2.475
Feb ’24NZ$2.83
NZ$2.89
+2.4%
10.4%NZ$3.31NZ$2.60NZ$2.545
Jan ’24NZ$2.58
NZ$2.84
+10.2%
8.0%NZ$3.20NZ$2.60NZ$2.515
Dec ’23NZ$2.59
NZ$2.86
+10.6%
7.6%NZ$3.20NZ$2.60NZ$2.375
Nov ’23NZ$2.83
NZ$2.89
+2.3%
7.0%NZ$3.20NZ$2.60NZ$2.315

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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