Meridian Energy Future Growth

Future criteria checks 3/6

Meridian Energy is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 34.7% and 0.06% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 34.9% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 5.9% in 3 years.

Key information

34.7%

Earnings growth rate

34.94%

EPS growth rate

Renewable Energy earnings growth	13.7%
Revenue growth rate	0.06%
Future return on equity	5.87%
Analyst coverage	Low
Last updated	07 Jun 2026

Recent future growth updates

Recent updates

Analysis Article • Jun 20

Meridian Energy (NZSE:MEL) Stock Could Be 32.2% Below Fair Value After Waitaki Extension

Meridian Energy (NZSE:MEL) is back in focus after the New Zealand Environment Court granted a 35 year extension for the Waitaki Power Scheme, alongside fresh data on contracted retail sales and generation volumes. See our latest analysis for Meridian Energy. At a latest share price of NZ$6.03, Meridian Energy has seen a 9.84% 90 day share price return and an 11.11% 1 year total shareholder return. This suggests momentum has been building alongside the Waitaki extension, as well as higher...

Analysis Article • Jan 12

Meridian Energy Limited (NZSE:MEL) Shares Could Be 40% Below Their Intrinsic Value Estimate

Key Insights The projected fair value for Meridian Energy is NZ$9.18 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Meridian...

Analysis Article • Nov 28

Meridian Energy (NZSE:MEL) Is Making Moderate Use Of Debt

David Iben put it well when he said, 'Volatility is not a risk we care about. What we care about is avoiding the...

Analysis Article • Oct 16

Meridian Energy Limited's (NZSE:MEL) Share Price Could Signal Some Risk

With a median price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of close to 3.4x in the Renewable Energy industry in New Zealand, you...

Analysis Article • Sep 24

Meridian Energy Limited's (NZSE:MEL) Intrinsic Value Is Potentially 60% Above Its Share Price

Key Insights The projected fair value for Meridian Energy is NZ$9.21 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Current...

New Narrative • Nov 25

Sustainable Growth On The Horizon From Innovative Energy Solutions

Expansion in wind and solar energy capacity is set to boost revenue growth through increased electricity generation and enhanced portfolio.

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

NZSE:MEL - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (NZD Millions)
Date	Revenue	Earnings	Free Cash Flow	Cash from Op	Avg. No. Analysts
6/30/2029	4,468	500	933	N/A	1
6/30/2028	4,800	436	868	922	2
6/30/2027	4,737	382	772	847	2
6/30/2026	4,248	304	721	813	2
12/31/2025	4,588	-104	467	604	N/A
9/30/2025	4,712	-278	301	461	N/A
6/30/2025	4,835	-452	134	318	N/A
3/31/2025	4,918	-167	129	366	N/A
12/31/2024	5,000	117	124	414	N/A
9/30/2024	4,928	273	235	541	N/A
6/30/2024	4,856	429	346	667	N/A
3/31/2024	4,360	257	N/A	N/A	N/A
12/31/2023	3,863	85	207	547	N/A
9/30/2023	3,543	90	194	528	N/A
6/30/2023	3,222	95	180	509	N/A
3/31/2023	3,398	301	N/A	N/A	N/A
12/31/2022	3,574	507	280	501	N/A
9/30/2022	3,675	479	285	481	N/A
6/30/2022	3,776	451	289	461	N/A
12/31/2021	3,945	333	302	469	N/A
9/30/2021	3,954	374	310	450	N/A
6/30/2021	3,963	415	317	431	N/A
3/31/2021	3,716	320	387	479	N/A
12/31/2020	3,315	211	456	526	N/A
9/30/2020	3,360	193	500	566	N/A
6/30/2020	3,405	175	543	605	N/A
3/31/2020	3,493	277	557	622	N/A
12/31/2019	3,580	378	571	639	N/A
9/30/2019	3,536	359	N/A	637	N/A
6/30/2019	3,491	339	N/A	635	N/A
3/31/2019	3,252	292	N/A	581	N/A
12/31/2018	3,012	244	N/A	527	N/A
9/30/2018	2,887	223	N/A	477	N/A
6/30/2018	2,762	201	N/A	427	N/A
3/31/2018	2,696	193	N/A	N/A	N/A
12/31/2017	2,630	184	N/A	429	N/A
9/30/2017	2,475	192	N/A	450	N/A
6/30/2017	2,320	200	N/A	470	N/A
3/31/2017	2,306	203	N/A	N/A	N/A
12/31/2016	2,292	206	N/A	449	N/A
9/30/2016	2,334	196	N/A	451	N/A
6/30/2016	2,375	185	N/A	452	N/A
3/31/2016	2,330	210	N/A	441	N/A
12/31/2015	2,284	234	N/A	429	N/A
9/30/2015	2,344	241	N/A	435	N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: MEL is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered faster growth than the savings rate (4%).

Earnings vs Market: MEL is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered above average market growth.

High Growth Earnings: MEL is expected to become profitable in the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: MEL's revenue (0.06% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the NZ market (4.4% per year).

High Growth Revenue: MEL's revenue (0.06% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: MEL's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (5.9%).

Discover growth companies

Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2026/07/08 16:55
End of Day Share Price	2026/07/08 00:00
Earnings	2025/12/31
Annual Earnings	2025/06/30

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

Package	Data	Timeframe	Example US Source ^*
Company Financials	10 years	Income statement Cash flow statement Balance sheet	SEC Form 10-K SEC Form 10-Q
Analyst Consensus Estimates	+3 years	Forecast financials Analyst price targets	Analyst Research Reports Blue Matrix
Market Prices	30 years	Stock prices Dividends, Splits and Actions	ICE Market Data SEC Form S-1
Ownership	10 years	Top shareholders Insider trading	SEC Form 4 SEC Form 13D
Management	10 years	Leadership team Board of directors	SEC Form 10-K SEC Form DEF 14A
Key Developments	10 years	Company announcements	SEC Form 8-K

^* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Meridian Energy Limited is covered by 11 analysts. 4 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

Analyst	Institution
Grant Swanepoel	Deutsche Bank
Bruce McKay	Edison Investment Research
Andrew Harvey-Green	Forsyth Barr Group Ltd.

Meridian Energy Future Growth

Future criteria checks 3/6

Key information

Recent future growth updates

Consensus EPS estimates increase by 835%, revenue downgraded

Consensus EPS estimates fall by 49%

Consensus EPS estimates increase by 22%

Consensus EPS estimates fall by 24%, revenue upgraded

Consensus EPS estimates fall by 36%, revenue upgraded

Consensus EPS estimates fall by 11%, revenue upgraded

Recent updates

Meridian Energy (NZSE:MEL) Stock Could Be 32.2% Below Fair Value After Waitaki Extension

Meridian Energy Stock Gains Long-Term Certainty With 35-Year Waitaki Scheme Approval

Meridian Energy Limited to Report Fiscal Year 2026 Results on Aug 26, 2026

Meridian Energy Moves Closer to Expanding Storage Capacity With Draft Regulatory Approval

Meridian Energy Limited Receives Draft Approval from Fast-Track Panel to Ease Access Restrictions on Lake Pkaki Hydro Storage and Install Rock Armouring

Insufficient new directors

First half dividend of NZ$0.074 announced

First half 2026 earnings released: EPS: NZ$0.086 (vs NZ$0.047 loss in 1H 2025)

Meridian Energy Limited Announces Ordinary Unfranked Dividend for the Six Months Ended December 31, 2025, Payable on March 24, 2026

Meridian Energy Limited (NZSE:MEL) Shares Could Be 40% Below Their Intrinsic Value Estimate

Meridian Energy Limited to Report First Half, 2026 Final Results on Feb 25, 2026

Meridian Energy Limited Announces Resignation of Michelle Henderson as Independent Director, Effective 27 January 2026

Meridian Energy (NZSE:MEL) Is Making Moderate Use Of Debt

Meridian Energy Limited Appoints Kylie Reiri as Future Director, Effective 3 November 2025

Meridian Energy Limited Declares Final Cash Dividend for the Fiscal Year 2025

Meridian Energy Limited's (NZSE:MEL) Share Price Could Signal Some Risk

Meridian Energy Limited's (NZSE:MEL) Intrinsic Value Is Potentially 60% Above Its Share Price

Final dividend of NZ$0.17 announced

Full year 2025 earnings: Revenues exceed analysts expectations while EPS lags behind

Consensus EPS estimates increase by 835%, revenue downgraded

Meridian Energy Limited, Annual General Meeting, Oct 21, 2025

Consensus EPS estimates fall by 49%

Meridian Energy Limited to Report Fiscal Year 2025 Results on Aug 27, 2025

Consensus EPS estimates increase by 22%

Meridian Energy Limited (NZSE:MEL) agreed to acquire branded electricity customers, hedge book and brand of Flick Energy Limited.

Consensus EPS estimates fall by 24%, revenue upgraded

Consensus EPS estimates fall by 36%, revenue upgraded

Now 20% undervalued after recent price drop

First half 2025 earnings released: NZ$0.047 loss per share (vs NZ$0.074 profit in 1H 2024)

Meridian Energy Limited (NZSE:MEL) entered into a Scheme Implementation Agreement to acquire remaining 80.01% stake in NZ Windfarms Limited (NZSE:NWF) from Salt Funds Management Limited and Robert Stone for NZD 72.7 million.

Consensus EPS estimates fall by 11%, revenue upgraded

Meridian Energy Limited to Report First Half, 2025 Results on Feb 26, 2025

Sustainable Growth On The Horizon From Innovative Energy Solutions

Consensus revenue estimates fall by 12%

Consensus EPS estimates fall by 21%, revenue upgraded

Final dividend increased to NZ$0.17

Full year 2024 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations

Meridian Energy Limited Declares Partially Imputed Final Ordinary Dividend for the Fiscal Year Ended June 30, 2024, Payable on 20 September 2024

Meridian Energy Limited, Annual General Meeting, Oct 15, 2024

Meridian Energy Limited to Report Fiscal Year 2024 Results on Aug 28, 2024

Consensus EPS estimates increase by 11%

Price target increased by 7.2% to NZ$5.84

First half dividend of NZ$0.07 announced

Meridian Energy Limited Announces Dividend for the Six Months Ended December 31, 2023, Payable on March 26, 2024

Meridian Energy Limited to Report First Half, 2024 Results on Feb 28, 2024

Meridian Energy Limited Announces Final Ordinary Dividend for the Six Months Ended June 30, 2023, Payable on September 22, 2023

Full year 2023 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations

Meridian Energy Limited, Annual General Meeting, Oct 12, 2023

Meridian Energy Limited Appoints David Carter as A Non-Executive Director with Effect from 25 July 2023

Meridian Energy Limited to Report Fiscal Year 2023 Results on Aug 29, 2023

Chief People Officer recently sold NZ$538k worth of stock

First half 2023 earnings released: EPS: NZ$0.078 (vs NZ$0.056 in 1H 2022)

Meridian Energy Limited Announces the Appointment of Benjamin Bateman as Director , Effective 28 February 2023

Meridian Energy Limited to Report First Half, 2023 Results on Mar 01, 2023

High number of new directors

Independent Non-Executive Director recently bought NZ$102k worth of stock

Upcoming dividend of NZ$0.13 per share

Full year 2022 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations

Meridian Energy Limited Announces Ordinary Fully Paid Foreign Exempt NZX Dividend for the Six Months Ended June 30, 2022, Payable on September 23, 2022

Meridian Energy Limited, Annual General Meeting, Oct 18, 2022