There's Reason For Concern Over Meridian Energy Limited's (NZSE:MEL) Price

With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 35.6x Meridian Energy Limited (NZSE:MEL) may be sending very bearish signals at the moment, given that almost half of all companies in New Zealand have P/E ratios under 19x and even P/E's lower than 10x are not unusual. However, the P/E might be quite high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

Meridian Energy certainly has been doing a good job lately as its earnings growth has been positive while most other companies have been seeing their earnings go backwards. It seems that many are expecting the company to continue defying the broader market adversity, which has increased investors’ willingness to pay up for the stock. If not, then existing shareholders might be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.

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How Is Meridian Energy's Growth Trending?

Meridian Energy's P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver very strong growth, and importantly, perform much better than the market.

If we review the last year of earnings growth, the company posted a terrific increase of 351%. Still, EPS has barely risen at all from three years ago in total, which is not ideal. Accordingly, shareholders probably wouldn't have been overly satisfied with the unstable medium-term growth rates.

Turning to the outlook, the next three years should generate growth of 3.2% per year as estimated by the five analysts watching the company. Meanwhile, the rest of the market is forecast to expand by 18% per year, which is noticeably more attractive.

With this information, we find it concerning that Meridian Energy is trading at a P/E higher than the market. It seems most investors are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects, but the analyst cohort is not so confident this will happen. There's a good chance these shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with the growth outlook.

The Final Word

While the price-to-earnings ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of earnings expectations.

We've established that Meridian Energy currently trades on a much higher than expected P/E since its forecast growth is lower than the wider market. Right now we are increasingly uncomfortable with the high P/E as the predicted future earnings aren't likely to support such positive sentiment for long. Unless these conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

It is also worth noting that we have found 1 warning sign for Meridian Energy that you need to take into consideration.

If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on Meridian Energy, explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.