Mercury NZ Limited

NZSE:MCY Stock Report

Market Cap: NZ$9.9b

Mercury NZ Future Growth

Future criteria checks 3/6

Mercury NZ is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 22% and 2.6% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 21.8% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 7.5% in 3 years.

Key information

22.0%

Earnings growth rate

21.83%

EPS growth rate

Electric Utilities earnings growth9.4%
Revenue growth rate2.6%
Future return on equity7.55%
Analyst coverage

Low

Last updated14 May 2026

Recent future growth updates

Recent updates

Narrative Update • May 10

MCY: Geothermal Expansion And Distribution Will Support A Steady Future Outlook

Analysts have nudged their fair value estimate for Mercury NZ higher, lifting the price target from NZ$6.99 to NZ$7.09. This reflects updated assumptions around discount rates, revenue growth, profit margins and a slightly lower future P/E multiple.
Narrative Update • Apr 12

MCY: Geothermal Expansion And Upcoming Distribution Will Support Steady Outlook

Analysts have kept their NZ$6.99 price target for Mercury NZ unchanged. This reflects broadly consistent assumptions for fair value, discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin and future P/E in their latest updates.
Narrative Update • Mar 27

MCY: Geothermal Expansion And Upcoming Distribution Will Support Steady Outlook

Analysts have kept their NZ$6.99 price target for Mercury NZ unchanged, reflecting steady assumptions for the discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin, and future P/E multiples in their latest review. What's in the News Mercury officially opened the fifth generation unit at its Nga Tamariki Geothermal Station near Taupo, a NZ$220m expansion project first announced in 2023 with construction starting in 2024 (Key Developments).
Narrative Update • Mar 11

MCY: Slightly Lower Fair Value Will Be Balanced By Upcoming Distribution

Analysts have slightly reduced their 12 month price target for Mercury NZ, with their estimate of fair value moving from NZ$7.02 to NZ$6.99. This revision reflects updated assumptions around revenue growth, profit margins and a modestly higher future P/E multiple.
Narrative Update • Feb 25

MCY: Higher Assumed Margins And P/E Will Support Stronger Future Upside

Analysts have lifted their price target for Mercury NZ to NZ$7.02 from NZ$6.89, reflecting updated views on discount rates, revenue growth, profit margins and future P/E assumptions. Valuation Changes Fair Value: revised slightly higher from NZ$6.89 to NZ$7.02.
Analysis Article • Dec 15

Mercury NZ Limited's (NZSE:MCY) Share Price Could Signal Some Risk

When you see that almost half of the companies in the Electric Utilities industry in New Zealand have price-to-sales...
Analysis Article • Nov 18

Mercury NZ Limited (NZSE:MCY) Shares Could Be 46% Below Their Intrinsic Value Estimate

Key Insights Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, Mercury NZ fair value estimate is NZ$11.93 Current share price...
Analysis Article • Oct 03

Is Mercury NZ (NZSE:MCY) Using Too Much Debt?

Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously...
Analysis Article • Sep 11

Mercury NZ Limited (NZSE:MCY) Investors Are Less Pessimistic Than Expected

When you see that almost half of the companies in the Electric Utilities industry in New Zealand have price-to-sales...
Narrative Update • Sep 04

Wind, Geothermal And Battery Projects Will Fuel New Zealand Decarbonization

With analysts providing no new reasoning for their valuation, both revenue growth and net profit margin forecasts for Mercury NZ remained stable, resulting in an unchanged consensus price target of NZ$6.89. What's in the News Mercury NZ provided FY26 dividend guidance of 25.0 cps, representing a 4% increase on FY25.
Analysis Article • Jul 31

Mercury NZ Limited's (NZSE:MCY) Intrinsic Value Is Potentially 87% Above Its Share Price

Key Insights The projected fair value for Mercury NZ is NZ$11.60 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Mercury NZ's...
User avatar
New Narrative • Feb 09

Kaiwera Downs 2 And Nga Tamariki Expansions Will Increase Future Renewable Capacity

Integration and renewable projects are expected to enhance operational efficiency and drive future revenue growth for Mercury NZ.

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

NZSE:MCY - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (NZD Millions)
DateRevenueEarningsFree Cash FlowCash from OpAvg. No. Analysts
6/30/20283,7224016497854
6/30/20273,6123836047564
6/30/20263,3402695887534
12/31/20253,4078897607N/A
9/30/20253,4534573545N/A
6/30/20253,498149483N/A
3/31/20253,53625101520N/A
12/31/20243,57449153556N/A
9/30/20243,499170216584N/A
6/30/20243,424290278612N/A
3/31/20243,230169221564N/A
12/31/20233,03547163516N/A
9/30/20232,88380222547N/A
6/30/20232,730112281578N/A
3/31/20232,673197347572N/A
12/31/20222,615281412565N/A
9/30/20222,402375313459N/A
6/30/20222,188469213352N/A
3/31/20222,081454165332N/A
12/31/20211,974438117311N/A
9/30/20212,01029074325N/A
6/30/20212,04514130338N/A
3/31/20211,91519923338N/A
12/31/20201,78425616338N/A
9/30/20201,77623375345N/A
6/30/20201,768209133352N/A
3/31/20201,809273153340N/A
12/31/20191,850336172328N/A
9/30/20191,926347N/A327N/A
6/30/20192,001357N/A326N/A
3/31/20191,962282N/A328N/A
12/31/20181,922207N/A330N/A
9/30/20181,860221N/A353N/A
6/30/20181,798234N/A376N/A
3/31/20181,777218N/A386N/A
12/31/20171,756202N/A396N/A
9/30/20171,677193N/A384N/A
6/30/20171,597184N/A372N/A
3/31/20171,572192N/A343N/A
12/31/20161,547199N/A313N/A
9/30/20161,556180N/A297N/A
6/30/20161,564160N/A280N/A
3/31/20161,591137N/A287N/A
12/31/20151,617113N/A293N/A
9/30/20151,64880N/A301N/A
6/30/20151,67847N/A309N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: MCY's forecast earnings growth (22% per year) is above the savings rate (4%).

Earnings vs Market: MCY's earnings (22% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the NZ market (17.9% per year).

High Growth Earnings: MCY's earnings are expected to grow significantly over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: MCY's revenue (2.6% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the NZ market (4.6% per year).

High Growth Revenue: MCY's revenue (2.6% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: MCY's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (7.5%).

Discover growth companies

7D

1Y

7D

1Y

7D

1Y

Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/05/29 05:39
End of Day Share Price 2026/05/29 00:00
Earnings2025/12/31
Annual Earnings2025/06/30

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Mercury NZ Limited is covered by 9 analysts. 4 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Grant SwanepoelDeutsche Bank
Andrew Harvey-GreenForsyth Barr Group Ltd.
Mark WisemanGoldman Sachs