Mercury NZ Future Growth
Future criteria checks 3/6
Mercury NZ is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 22% and 2.6% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 21.8% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 7.5% in 3 years.
Key information
22.0%
Earnings growth rate
21.84%
EPS growth rate
| Electric Utilities earnings growth | 9.4% |
| Revenue growth rate | 2.6% |
| Future return on equity | 7.55% |
| Analyst coverage | Low |
| Last updated | 28 Apr 2026 |
Recent future growth updates
Recent updates
MCY: Geothermal Expansion And Upcoming Distribution Will Support Steady Outlook
Analysts have kept their NZ$6.99 price target for Mercury NZ unchanged. This reflects broadly consistent assumptions for fair value, discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin and future P/E in their latest updates.MCY: Geothermal Expansion And Upcoming Distribution Will Support Steady Outlook
Analysts have kept their NZ$6.99 price target for Mercury NZ unchanged, reflecting steady assumptions for the discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin, and future P/E multiples in their latest review. What's in the News Mercury officially opened the fifth generation unit at its Nga Tamariki Geothermal Station near Taupo, a NZ$220m expansion project first announced in 2023 with construction starting in 2024 (Key Developments).MCY: Slightly Lower Fair Value Will Be Balanced By Upcoming Distribution
Analysts have slightly reduced their 12 month price target for Mercury NZ, with their estimate of fair value moving from NZ$7.02 to NZ$6.99. This revision reflects updated assumptions around revenue growth, profit margins and a modestly higher future P/E multiple.MCY: Higher Assumed Margins And P/E Will Support Stronger Future Upside
Analysts have lifted their price target for Mercury NZ to NZ$7.02 from NZ$6.89, reflecting updated views on discount rates, revenue growth, profit margins and future P/E assumptions. Valuation Changes Fair Value: revised slightly higher from NZ$6.89 to NZ$7.02.Mercury NZ Limited's (NZSE:MCY) Share Price Could Signal Some Risk
Dec 15
Mercury NZ Limited (NZSE:MCY) Shares Could Be 46% Below Their Intrinsic Value Estimate
Nov 18Is Mercury NZ (NZSE:MCY) Using Too Much Debt?
Oct 03Mercury NZ Limited (NZSE:MCY) Investors Are Less Pessimistic Than Expected
Sep 11Wind, Geothermal And Battery Projects Will Fuel New Zealand Decarbonization
With analysts providing no new reasoning for their valuation, both revenue growth and net profit margin forecasts for Mercury NZ remained stable, resulting in an unchanged consensus price target of NZ$6.89. What's in the News Mercury NZ provided FY26 dividend guidance of 25.0 cps, representing a 4% increase on FY25.Mercury NZ Limited's (NZSE:MCY) Intrinsic Value Is Potentially 87% Above Its Share Price
Jul 31Is Mercury NZ (NZSE:MCY) A Risky Investment?
May 28
Kaiwera Downs 2 And Nga Tamariki Expansions Will Increase Future Renewable Capacity
Integration and renewable projects are expected to enhance operational efficiency and drive future revenue growth for Mercury NZ.Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts
| Date | Revenue | Earnings | Free Cash Flow | Cash from Op | Avg. No. Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6/30/2028 | 3,899 | 401 | 649 | 785 | 3 |
| 6/30/2027 | 3,815 | 383 | 604 | 756 | 3 |
| 6/30/2026 | 3,434 | 269 | 588 | 753 | 3 |
| 12/31/2025 | 3,407 | 88 | 97 | 607 | N/A |
| 9/30/2025 | 3,453 | 45 | 73 | 545 | N/A |
| 6/30/2025 | 3,498 | 1 | 49 | 483 | N/A |
| 3/31/2025 | 3,536 | 25 | 101 | 520 | N/A |
| 12/31/2024 | 3,574 | 49 | 153 | 556 | N/A |
| 9/30/2024 | 3,499 | 170 | 216 | 584 | N/A |
| 6/30/2024 | 3,424 | 290 | 278 | 612 | N/A |
| 3/31/2024 | 3,230 | 169 | 221 | 564 | N/A |
| 12/31/2023 | 3,035 | 47 | 163 | 516 | N/A |
| 9/30/2023 | 2,883 | 80 | 222 | 547 | N/A |
| 6/30/2023 | 2,730 | 112 | 281 | 578 | N/A |
| 3/31/2023 | 2,673 | 197 | 347 | 572 | N/A |
| 12/31/2022 | 2,615 | 281 | 412 | 565 | N/A |
| 9/30/2022 | 2,402 | 375 | 313 | 459 | N/A |
| 6/30/2022 | 2,188 | 469 | 213 | 352 | N/A |
| 3/31/2022 | 2,081 | 454 | 165 | 332 | N/A |
| 12/31/2021 | 1,974 | 438 | 117 | 311 | N/A |
| 9/30/2021 | 2,010 | 290 | 74 | 325 | N/A |
| 6/30/2021 | 2,045 | 141 | 30 | 338 | N/A |
| 3/31/2021 | 1,915 | 199 | 23 | 338 | N/A |
| 12/31/2020 | 1,784 | 256 | 16 | 338 | N/A |
| 9/30/2020 | 1,776 | 233 | 75 | 345 | N/A |
| 6/30/2020 | 1,768 | 209 | 133 | 352 | N/A |
| 3/31/2020 | 1,809 | 273 | 153 | 340 | N/A |
| 12/31/2019 | 1,850 | 336 | 172 | 328 | N/A |
| 9/30/2019 | 1,926 | 347 | N/A | 327 | N/A |
| 6/30/2019 | 2,001 | 357 | N/A | 326 | N/A |
| 3/31/2019 | 1,962 | 282 | N/A | 328 | N/A |
| 12/31/2018 | 1,922 | 207 | N/A | 330 | N/A |
| 9/30/2018 | 1,860 | 221 | N/A | 353 | N/A |
| 6/30/2018 | 1,798 | 234 | N/A | 376 | N/A |
| 3/31/2018 | 1,777 | 218 | N/A | 386 | N/A |
| 12/31/2017 | 1,756 | 202 | N/A | 396 | N/A |
| 9/30/2017 | 1,677 | 193 | N/A | 384 | N/A |
| 6/30/2017 | 1,597 | 184 | N/A | 372 | N/A |
| 3/31/2017 | 1,572 | 192 | N/A | 343 | N/A |
| 12/31/2016 | 1,547 | 199 | N/A | 313 | N/A |
| 9/30/2016 | 1,556 | 180 | N/A | 297 | N/A |
| 6/30/2016 | 1,564 | 160 | N/A | 280 | N/A |
| 3/31/2016 | 1,591 | 137 | N/A | 287 | N/A |
| 12/31/2015 | 1,617 | 113 | N/A | 293 | N/A |
| 9/30/2015 | 1,648 | 80 | N/A | 301 | N/A |
| 6/30/2015 | 1,678 | 47 | N/A | 309 | N/A |
Analyst Future Growth Forecasts
Earnings vs Savings Rate: MCY's forecast earnings growth (22% per year) is above the savings rate (3.9%).
Earnings vs Market: MCY's earnings (22% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the NZ market (16.3% per year).
High Growth Earnings: MCY's earnings are expected to grow significantly over the next 3 years.
Revenue vs Market: MCY's revenue (2.6% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the NZ market (4.3% per year).
High Growth Revenue: MCY's revenue (2.6% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.
Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts
Future Return on Equity
Future ROE: MCY's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (7.5%).
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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/04/30 13:45 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/04/30 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/06/30 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
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| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
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| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
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Industry and Sector Metrics
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Analyst Sources
Mercury NZ Limited is covered by 9 analysts. 4 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Grant Swanepoel | Deutsche Bank |
| Andrew Harvey-Green | Forsyth Barr Group Ltd. |
| Mark Wiseman | Goldman Sachs |