Lacklustre Performance Is Driving Foley Wines Limited's (NZSE:FWL) 25% Price Drop

The Foley Wines Limited (NZSE:FWL) share price has fared very poorly over the last month, falling by a substantial 25%. Instead of being rewarded, shareholders who have already held through the last twelve months are now sitting on a 41% share price drop.

After such a large drop in price, Foley Wines' price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 13.1x might make it look like a buy right now compared to the market in New Zealand, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios above 16x and even P/E's above 29x are quite common. However, the P/E might be low for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

For example, consider that Foley Wines' financial performance has been poor lately as its earnings have been in decline. One possibility is that the P/E is low because investors think the company won't do enough to avoid underperforming the broader market in the near future. If you like the company, you'd be hoping this isn't the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's out of favour.

See our latest analysis for Foley Wines

Although there are no analyst estimates available for Foley Wines, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

Is There Any Growth For Foley Wines?

Foley Wines' P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's only expected to deliver limited growth, and importantly, perform worse than the market.

Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 45%. This means it has also seen a slide in earnings over the longer-term as EPS is down 44% in total over the last three years. Accordingly, shareholders would have felt downbeat about the medium-term rates of earnings growth.

In contrast to the company, the rest of the market is expected to grow by 20% over the next year, which really puts the company's recent medium-term earnings decline into perspective.

With this information, we are not surprised that Foley Wines is trading at a P/E lower than the market. However, we think shrinking earnings are unlikely to lead to a stable P/E over the longer term, which could set up shareholders for future disappointment. There's potential for the P/E to fall to even lower levels if the company doesn't improve its profitability.

The Bottom Line On Foley Wines' P/E

Foley Wines' P/E has taken a tumble along with its share price. Using the price-to-earnings ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.

As we suspected, our examination of Foley Wines revealed its shrinking earnings over the medium-term are contributing to its low P/E, given the market is set to grow. At this stage investors feel the potential for an improvement in earnings isn't great enough to justify a higher P/E ratio. If recent medium-term earnings trends continue, it's hard to see the share price moving strongly in either direction in the near future under these circumstances.

It is also worth noting that we have found 4 warning signs for Foley Wines (1 is concerning!) that you need to take into consideration.

If P/E ratios interest you, you may wish to see this free collection of other companies with strong earnings growth and low P/E ratios.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.