Optimism for Fonterra Co-operative Group (NZSE:FCG) has grown this past week, despite one-year decline in earnings

Unfortunately, investing is risky - companies can and do go bankrupt. But if you pick the right stock, you can make a lot more than 100%. For example, the Fonterra Co-operative Group Limited (NZSE:FCG) share price had more than doubled in just one year - up 108%. It's also good to see the share price up 11% over the last quarter. And shareholders have also done well over the long term, with an increase of 63% in the last three years.

Since it's been a strong week for Fonterra Co-operative Group shareholders, let's have a look at trend of the longer term fundamentals.

Check out our latest analysis for Fonterra Co-operative Group

To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

Over the last twelve months, Fonterra Co-operative Group actually shrank its EPS by 5.7%.

So we don't think that investors are paying too much attention to EPS. Therefore, it seems likely that investors are putting more weight on metrics other than EPS, at the moment.

We note that the most recent dividend payment is higher than the payment a year ago, so that may have assisted the share price. Income-seeking investors probably helped bid up the stock price.

The company's revenue and earnings (over time) are depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).

We consider it positive that insiders have made significant purchases in the last year. Even so, future earnings will be far more important to whether current shareholders make money. Before buying or selling a stock, we always recommend a close examination of historic growth trends, available here..

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. In the case of Fonterra Co-operative Group, it has a TSR of 146% for the last 1 year. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

It's nice to see that Fonterra Co-operative Group shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 146% over the last year. And that does include the dividend. Since the one-year TSR is better than the five-year TSR (the latter coming in at 17% per year), it would seem that the stock's performance has improved in recent times. Someone with an optimistic perspective could view the recent improvement in TSR as indicating that the business itself is getting better with time. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Take risks, for example - Fonterra Co-operative Group has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.

If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: most of them are flying under the radar).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on New Zealander exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.