The Market Doesn't Like What It Sees From Geneva Finance Limited's (NZSE:GFL) Earnings Yet

Geneva Finance Limited's (NZSE:GFL) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 10.2x might make it look like a buy right now compared to the market in New Zealand, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios above 18x and even P/E's above 31x are quite common. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/E at face value as there may be an explanation why it's limited.

As an illustration, earnings have deteriorated at Geneva Finance over the last year, which is not ideal at all. One possibility is that the P/E is low because investors think the company won't do enough to avoid underperforming the broader market in the near future. If you like the company, you'd be hoping this isn't the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's out of favour.

Check out our latest analysis for Geneva Finance

Although there are no analyst estimates available for Geneva Finance, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The Low P/E?

In order to justify its P/E ratio, Geneva Finance would need to produce sluggish growth that's trailing the market.

Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 55%. This means it has also seen a slide in earnings over the longer-term as EPS is down 58% in total over the last three years. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing earnings over that time.

In contrast to the company, the rest of the market is expected to grow by 18% over the next year, which really puts the company's recent medium-term earnings decline into perspective.

In light of this, it's understandable that Geneva Finance's P/E would sit below the majority of other companies. Nonetheless, there's no guarantee the P/E has reached a floor yet with earnings going in reverse. Even just maintaining these prices could be difficult to achieve as recent earnings trends are already weighing down the shares.

The Final Word

Using the price-to-earnings ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.

As we suspected, our examination of Geneva Finance revealed its shrinking earnings over the medium-term are contributing to its low P/E, given the market is set to grow. Right now shareholders are accepting the low P/E as they concede future earnings probably won't provide any pleasant surprises. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve, they will continue to form a barrier for the share price around these levels.

You should always think about risks. Case in point, we've spotted 6 warning signs for Geneva Finance you should be aware of, and 3 of them shouldn't be ignored.

You might be able to find a better investment than Geneva Finance. If you want a selection of possible candidates, check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a low P/E (but have proven they can grow earnings).

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.