Gjensidige Forsikring ASA Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now

It's been a good week for Gjensidige Forsikring ASA (OB:GJF) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest third-quarter results, and the shares gained 4.2% to kr164. It was not a great result overall. Although revenues beat expectations, hitting kr9.4b, statutory earnings missed analyst forecasts by 18%, coming in at just kr1.63 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Gjensidige Forsikring after the latest results.

See our latest analysis for Gjensidige Forsikring

Taking into account the latest results, Gjensidige Forsikring's ten analysts currently expect revenues in 2024 to be kr37.9b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to increase 5.8% to kr11.56. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of kr37.6b and earnings per share (EPS) of kr11.45 in 2024. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of kr185, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Gjensidige Forsikring, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at kr240 and the most bearish at kr141 per share. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 0.2% by the end of 2024. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 6.6% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 6.2% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Gjensidige Forsikring is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Gjensidige Forsikring's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at kr185, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Gjensidige Forsikring. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Gjensidige Forsikring analysts - going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for Gjensidige Forsikring that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.