Investors in Aker BP (OB:AKRBP) have unfortunately lost 19% over the last three years

Many investors define successful investing as beating the market average over the long term. But the risk of stock picking is that you will likely buy under-performing companies. Unfortunately, that's been the case for longer term Aker BP ASA (OB:AKRBP) shareholders, since the share price is down 36% in the last three years, falling well short of the market decline of around 14%. Unfortunately the share price momentum is still quite negative, with prices down 11% in thirty days. This could be related to the recent financial results - you can catch up on the most recent data by reading our company report.

It's worthwhile assessing if the company's economics have been moving in lockstep with these underwhelming shareholder returns, or if there is some disparity between the two. So let's do just that.

Our free stock report includes 2 warning signs investors should be aware of before investing in Aker BP. Read for free now.

There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

During the unfortunate three years of share price decline, Aker BP actually saw its earnings per share (EPS) improve by 7.9% per year. Given the share price reaction, one might suspect that EPS is not a good guide to the business performance during the period (perhaps due to a one-off loss or gain). Or else the company was over-hyped in the past, and so its growth has disappointed.

Since the change in EPS doesn't seem to correlate with the change in share price, it's worth taking a look at other metrics.

Given the healthiness of the dividend payments, we doubt that they've concerned the market. It's good to see that Aker BP has increased its revenue over the last three years. But it's not clear to us why the share price is down. It might be worth diving deeper into the fundamentals, lest an opportunity goes begging.

The graphic below depicts how earnings and revenue have changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

Aker BP is well known by investors, and plenty of clever analysts have tried to predict the future profit levels. You can see what analysts are predicting for Aker BP in this interactive graph of future profit estimates.

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. We note that for Aker BP the TSR over the last 3 years was -19%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

While the broader market gained around 7.3% in the last year, Aker BP shareholders lost 11% (even including dividends). Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. On the bright side, long term shareholders have made money, with a gain of 14% per year over half a decade. It could be that the recent sell-off is an opportunity, so it may be worth checking the fundamental data for signs of a long term growth trend. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Aker BP better, we need to consider many other factors. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Aker BP (1 shouldn't be ignored) that you should be aware of.

Of course Aker BP may not be the best stock to buy. So you may wish to see this free collection of growth stocks.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Norwegian exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.