Results: InPost S.A. Exceeded Expectations And The Consensus Has Updated Its Estimates

Investors in InPost S.A. (AMS:INPST) had a good week, as its shares rose 7.8% to close at €17.89 following the release of its quarterly results. Revenues were zł2.6b, approximately in line with expectations, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) performed substantially better. EPS of zł0.67 were also better than expected, beating analyst predictions by 14%. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for InPost

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from InPost's 14 analysts is for revenues of zł10.9b in 2024. This reflects a solid 11% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to jump 29% to zł2.56. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of zł10.9b and earnings per share (EPS) of zł2.55 in 2024. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of €18.05, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on InPost, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at €21.22 and the most bearish at €8.14 per share. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business' future is relatively easy to value, or thatthe analysts have a strong view on its prospects.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that InPost's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 24% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 32% over the past three years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 3.1% per year. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that InPost is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on InPost. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for InPost going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for InPost you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.