Aperam S.A. (AMS:APAM) Just Released Its Second-Quarter Earnings: Here's What Analysts Think

Last week saw the newest second-quarter earnings release from Aperam S.A. (AMS:APAM), an important milestone in the company's journey to build a stronger business. Aperam reported in line with analyst predictions, delivering revenues of €1.6b and statutory earnings per share of €2.79, suggesting the business is executing well and in line with its plan. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

View our latest analysis for Aperam

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Aperam's eight analysts is for revenues of €6.68b in 2024. This would reflect a credible 6.0% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to step up 15% to €1.09. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of €6.87b and earnings per share (EPS) of €1.03 in 2024. If anything, the analysts look to have become slightly more optimistic overall; while they decreased their revenue forecasts, EPS predictions increased and ultimately earnings are more important.

The consensus has made no major changes to the price target of €30.57, suggesting the forecast improvement in earnings is expected to offset the decline in revenues next year. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Aperam at €42.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at €22.60. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. The period to the end of 2024 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 12% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 14% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 2.0% annually. So although Aperam is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's definitely expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Aperam's earnings potential next year. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, but the latest forecasts still imply the business will grow faster than the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Aperam analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Before you take the next step you should know about the 3 warning signs for Aperam that we have uncovered.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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