Stock Analysis

Koninklijke Philips' (AMS:PHIA) earnings have declined over three years, contributing to shareholders 55% loss

ENXTAM:PHIA
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The truth is that if you invest for long enough, you're going to end up with some losing stocks. But the long term shareholders of Koninklijke Philips N.V. (AMS:PHIA) have had an unfortunate run in the last three years. So they might be feeling emotional about the 58% share price collapse, in that time. The more recent news is of little comfort, with the share price down 55% in a year. Shareholders have had an even rougher run lately, with the share price down 19% in the last 90 days.

While the stock has risen 8.2% in the past week but long term shareholders are still in the red, let's see what the fundamentals can tell us.

However if you'd rather see where the opportunities and risks are within PHIA's industry, you can check out our analysis on the XX Medical Equipment industry.

While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

During the three years that the share price fell, Koninklijke Philips' earnings per share (EPS) dropped by 33% each year. In comparison the 25% compound annual share price decline isn't as bad as the EPS drop-off. This suggests that the market retains some optimism around long term earnings stability, despite past EPS declines.

The image below shows how EPS has tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

earnings-per-share-growth
ENXTAM:PHIA Earnings Per Share Growth September 11th 2022

We consider it positive that insiders have made significant purchases in the last year. Having said that, most people consider earnings and revenue growth trends to be a more meaningful guide to the business. It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on Koninklijke Philips' earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. In the case of Koninklijke Philips, it has a TSR of -55% for the last 3 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

While the broader market lost about 22% in the twelve months, Koninklijke Philips shareholders did even worse, losing 53% (even including dividends). Having said that, it's inevitable that some stocks will be oversold in a falling market. The key is to keep your eyes on the fundamental developments. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 7% over the last half decade. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Koninklijke Philips better, we need to consider many other factors. To that end, you should be aware of the 3 warning signs we've spotted with Koninklijke Philips .

There are plenty of other companies that have insiders buying up shares. You probably do not want to miss this free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on NL exchanges.

Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.

Discover if Koninklijke Philips might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.