Alfen N.V. (AMS:ALFEN) Just Reported Yearly Earnings: Have Analysts Changed Their Mind On The Stock?

It's been a pretty great week for Alfen N.V. (AMS:ALFEN) shareholders, with its shares surging 16% to €60.96 in the week since its latest full-year results. The result was positive overall - although revenues of €504m were in line with what the analysts predicted, Alfen surprised by delivering a statutory profit of €1.36 per share, modestly greater than expected. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

See our latest analysis for Alfen

After the latest results, the nine analysts covering Alfen are now predicting revenues of €634.8m in 2024. If met, this would reflect a huge 26% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to shoot up 59% to €2.17. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of €630.6m and earnings per share (EPS) of €2.10 in 2024. So the consensus seems to have become somewhat more optimistic on Alfen's earnings potential following these results.

The consensus price target was unchanged at €63.33, implying that the improved earnings outlook is not expected to have a long term impact on value creation for shareholders. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic Alfen analyst has a price target of €89.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at €50.00. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. The period to the end of 2024 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 26% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 32% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 6.2% annually. So it's pretty clear that Alfen is forecast to grow substantially faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Alfen following these results. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Alfen analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Plus, you should also learn about the 3 warning signs we've spotted with Alfen (including 1 which is potentially serious) .

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.