Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For NationGate Holdings Berhad (KLSE:NATGATE) Following Its Earnings Miss

The analysts might have been a bit too bullish on NationGate Holdings Berhad (KLSE:NATGATE), given that the company fell short of expectations when it released its annual results last week. It wasn't a great result overall - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at RM638m, statutory earnings missed forecasts by 11%, coming in at just RM0.029 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on NationGate Holdings Berhad after the latest results.

View our latest analysis for NationGate Holdings Berhad

Following the latest results, NationGate Holdings Berhad's three analysts are now forecasting revenues of RM1.25b in 2024. This would be a huge 96% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to bounce 122% to RM0.065. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of RM1.19b and earnings per share (EPS) of RM0.064 in 2024. So it looks like there's been no major change in sentiment following the latest results, although the analysts have made a slight bump in to revenue forecasts.

It may not be a surprise to see thatthe analysts have reconfirmed their price target of RM1.64, implying that the uplift in revenue is not expected to greatly contribute to NationGate Holdings Berhad's valuation in the near term. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values NationGate Holdings Berhad at RM1.80 per share, while the most bearish prices it at RM1.51. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that NationGate Holdings Berhad is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. The analysts are definitely expecting NationGate Holdings Berhad's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 96% annualised growth to the end of 2024 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 4.0% per annum over the past three years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 15% annually. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect NationGate Holdings Berhad to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Pleasantly, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and their forecasts suggest the business is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at RM1.64, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for NationGate Holdings Berhad going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You can also see whether NationGate Holdings Berhad is carrying too much debt, and whether its balance sheet is healthy, for free on our platform here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.