Alfa S.A.B. de C.V.'s (BMV:ALFAA) 28% Share Price Surge Not Quite Adding Up

Alfa S.A.B. de C.V. (BMV:ALFAA) shareholders have had their patience rewarded with a 28% share price jump in the last month. Taking a wider view, although not as strong as the last month, the full year gain of 17% is also fairly reasonable.

Although its price has surged higher, it's still not a stretch to say that Alfa. de's price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 0.2x right now seems quite "middle-of-the-road" compared to the Industrials industry in Mexico, where the median P/S ratio is around 0.5x. Although, it's not wise to simply ignore the P/S without explanation as investors may be disregarding a distinct opportunity or a costly mistake.

See our latest analysis for Alfa. de

What Does Alfa. de's P/S Mean For Shareholders?

Alfa. de could be doing better as its revenue has been going backwards lately while most other companies have been seeing positive revenue growth. It might be that many expect the dour revenue performance to strengthen positively, which has kept the P/S from falling. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a relatively elevated price for a company with this sort of growth profile.

Keen to find out how analysts think Alfa. de's future stacks up against the industry? In that case, our free report is a great place to start.

Do Revenue Forecasts Match The P/S Ratio?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should be matching the industry for P/S ratios like Alfa. de's to be considered reasonable.

In reviewing the last year of financials, we were disheartened to see the company's revenues fell to the tune of 16%. Unfortunately, that's brought it right back to where it started three years ago with revenue growth being virtually non-existent overall during that time. Therefore, it's fair to say that revenue growth has been inconsistent recently for the company.

Shifting to the future, estimates from the six analysts covering the company suggest revenue should grow by 7.8% over the next year. Meanwhile, the rest of the industry is forecast to expand by 31%, which is noticeably more attractive.

With this in mind, we find it intriguing that Alfa. de's P/S is closely matching its industry peers. Apparently many investors in the company are less bearish than analysts indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. Maintaining these prices will be difficult to achieve as this level of revenue growth is likely to weigh down the shares eventually.

The Final Word

Its shares have lifted substantially and now Alfa. de's P/S is back within range of the industry median. It's argued the price-to-sales ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.

Our look at the analysts forecasts of Alfa. de's revenue prospects has shown that its inferior revenue outlook isn't negatively impacting its P/S as much as we would have predicted. At present, we aren't confident in the P/S as the predicted future revenues aren't likely to support a more positive sentiment for long. This places shareholders' investments at risk and potential investors in danger of paying an unnecessary premium.

And what about other risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Alfa. de you should know about.

Of course, profitable companies with a history of great earnings growth are generally safer bets. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.