Earnings Update: Osaka Gas Co., Ltd. (TSE:9532) Just Reported Its Full-Year Results And Analysts Are Updating Their Forecasts

The annual results for Osaka Gas Co., Ltd. (TSE:9532) were released last week, making it a good time to revisit its performance. It was a credible result overall, with revenues of JP¥2.1t and statutory earnings per share of JP¥333 both in line with analyst estimates, showing that Osaka Gas is executing in line with expectations. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

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Following last week's earnings report, Osaka Gas' four analysts are forecasting 2026 revenues to be JP¥2.04t, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to drop 11% to JP¥301 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of JP¥2.05t and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥321 in 2026. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the small dip in their earnings per share numbers for next year.

See our latest analysis for Osaka Gas

The consensus price target held steady at JP¥4,186, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Osaka Gas analyst has a price target of JP¥4,700 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at JP¥3,550. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 1.4% by the end of 2026. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 12% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 1.0% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Osaka Gas is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥4,186, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Osaka Gas. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Osaka Gas analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 2 warning signs for Osaka Gas you should be aware of, and 1 of them is a bit concerning.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.