Japan Airlines Co., Ltd. (TSE:9201) Yearly Results: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For This Year

Japan Airlines Co., Ltd. (TSE:9201) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 3.1% to JP¥2,753 in the week after its latest full-year results. Japan Airlines reported JP¥1.7t in revenue, roughly in line with analyst forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥219 beat expectations, being 3.7% higher than what the analysts expected. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Japan Airlines

After the latest results, the ten analysts covering Japan Airlines are now predicting revenues of JP¥1.82t in 2025. If met, this would reflect a meaningful 8.2% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to grow 10% to JP¥241. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of JP¥1.79t and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥243 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of JP¥3,326, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on Japan Airlines, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at JP¥3,800 and the most bearish at JP¥3,000 per share. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business' future is relatively easy to value, or thatthe analysts have a strong view on its prospects.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Japan Airlines' past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's clear from the latest estimates that Japan Airlines' rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 8.2% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 2.5% p.a. over the past five years. Other similar companies in the industry (with analyst coverage) are also forecast to grow their revenue at 8.6% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Japan Airlines is expected to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥3,326, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Japan Airlines going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 1 warning sign for Japan Airlines you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.