Earnings Beat: Yamato Holdings Co., Ltd. Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Models

It's been a sad week for Yamato Holdings Co., Ltd. (TSE:9064), who've watched their investment drop 13% to JP¥1,758 in the week since the company reported its annual result. The result was positive overall - although revenues of JP¥1.8t were in line with what the analysts predicted, Yamato Holdings surprised by delivering a statutory profit of JP¥107 per share, modestly greater than expected. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

See our latest analysis for Yamato Holdings

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Yamato Holdings' nine analysts is for revenues of JP¥1.80t in 2025. This would reflect a modest 2.5% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to decrease 2.4% to JP¥107 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of JP¥1.82t and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥125 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become more bearish following the latest results. While there were no changes to revenue forecasts, there was a real cut to EPS estimates.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at JP¥2,498, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Yamato Holdings at JP¥3,000 per share, while the most bearish prices it at JP¥1,850. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of Yamato Holdings'historical trends, as the 2.5% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 is roughly in line with the 2.5% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 3.9% per year. So although Yamato Holdings is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's forecast to grow slower than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Yamato Holdings. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥2,498, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Yamato Holdings analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Even so, be aware that Yamato Holdings is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.