Hamamatsu Photonics K.K. Just Missed EPS By 13%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Hamamatsu Photonics K.K. (TSE:6965) missed earnings with its latest half-yearly results, disappointing overly-optimistic forecasters. It wasn't a great result overall - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at JP¥104b, statutory earnings missed forecasts by 13%, coming in at just JP¥108 per share. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

View our latest analysis for Hamamatsu Photonics K.K

After the latest results, the eight analysts covering Hamamatsu Photonics K.K are now predicting revenues of JP¥219.1b in 2024. If met, this would reflect a modest 2.5% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory per share are forecast to be JP¥227, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of JP¥221.3b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥228 in 2024. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of JP¥6,867, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Hamamatsu Photonics K.K at JP¥8,000 per share, while the most bearish prices it at JP¥5,900. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Hamamatsu Photonics K.K shareholders.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Hamamatsu Photonics K.K's past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Hamamatsu Photonics K.K's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 5.0% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 11% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 7.0% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Hamamatsu Photonics K.K is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Hamamatsu Photonics K.K going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You can also see our analysis of Hamamatsu Photonics K.K's Board and CEO remuneration and experience, and whether company insiders have been buying stock.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.