Analysts Have Made A Financial Statement On Keyence Corporation's (TSE:6861) Full-Year Report

It's been a pretty great week for Keyence Corporation (TSE:6861) shareholders, with its shares surging 11% to JP¥69,610 in the week since its latest yearly results. The result was positive overall - although revenues of JP¥967b were in line with what the analysts predicted, Keyence surprised by delivering a statutory profit of JP¥1,524 per share, modestly greater than expected. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for Keyence

After the latest results, the 15 analysts covering Keyence are now predicting revenues of JP¥1.06t in 2025. If met, this would reflect a decent 9.9% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to rise 9.2% to JP¥1,664. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of JP¥1.06t and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥1,656 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at JP¥75,600. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on Keyence, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at JP¥95,000 and the most bearish at JP¥49,000 per share. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that Keyence's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 9.9% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 14% p.a. growth over the last five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 6.8% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while Keyence's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Keyence going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Another thing to consider is whether management and directors have been buying or selling stock recently. We provide an overview of all open market stock trades for the last twelve months on our platform, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.