Keyence (TSE:6861) - Share price, News & Analysis

Q: What is the Fair Price of 6861 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

6861 (¥55500) is trading above our estimate of [[fair value]] (¥35914.95)

6861 fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	0/6
Future Growth	3/6
Past Performance	4/6
Financial Health	6/6
Dividends	0/6

6861 Stock Overview

Keyence Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, develops, manufactures, and sells factory automation solutions worldwide.

Rewards

Earnings are forecast to grow 11.85% per year

Earnings have grown 6.9% per year over the past 5 years

Risk Analysis

No risks detected for 6861 from our risk checks.

Keyence Competitors

Shimadzu

TSE:7701

JP¥1.4t

Yokogawa Electric

TSE:6841

JP¥617.9b

Azbil

TSE:6845

JP¥559.7b

HORIBA

TSE:6856

JP¥280.6b

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Keyence
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	JP¥55,500.00
52 Week High	JP¥76,210.00
52 Week Low	JP¥44,880.00
Beta	0.89
1 Month Change	11.83%
3 Month Change	10.12%
1 Year Change	-10.70%
3 Year Change	84.08%
5 Year Change	116.04%
Change since IPO	3,629.45%

Shareholder Returns

	6861	JP Electronic	JP Market
7D	1.3%	4.2%	0.5%
1Y	-10.7%	-5.4%	-0.09%

Return vs Industry: 6861 underperformed the JP Electronic industry which returned -5.4% over the past year.

Return vs Market: 6861 underperformed the JP Market which returned -0.1% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is 6861's price volatile compared to industry and market?
6861 volatility
6861 Average Weekly Movement	4.4%
Electronic Industry Average Movement	4.2%
Market Average Movement	3.9%
10% most volatile stocks in JP Market	8.1%
10% least volatile stocks in JP Market	2.1%

Stable Share Price: 6861 is not significantly more volatile than the rest of JP stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 4% a week.

Volatility Over Time: 6861's weekly volatility (4%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
1972	8,961	Yu Nakata	https://www.keyence.com

Keyence Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, develops, manufactures, and sells factory automation solutions worldwide. The company offers photoelectric, fiber optic, laser, positioning, vision, and inductive proximity sensors, as well as network communication units used for presence/absence and part differentiation applications. It also provides measurement sensors, such as laser displacement and profiler, optical/laser micrometer, 3D interference measurement, spectral interference displacement, and contact displacement/LVDT sensors; and measurement systems, including optical comparators, 3D scanners, and CMM/laser trackers.

Keyence Fundamentals Summary

How do Keyence's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
6861 fundamental statistics
Market Cap	JP¥13.56t
Earnings (TTM)	JP¥315.42b
Revenue (TTM)	JP¥777.22b

42.7x

P/E Ratio

17.3x

P/S Ratio

Is 6861 overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
6861 income statement (TTM)
Revenue	JP¥777.22b
Cost of Revenue	JP¥137.55b
Gross Profit	JP¥639.66b
Other Expenses	JP¥324.25b
Earnings	JP¥315.42b

Last Reported Earnings

Jun 20, 2022

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)	1.30k
Gross Margin	82.30%
Net Profit Margin	40.58%
Debt/Equity Ratio	0.0%

How did 6861 perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

0.4%

Current Dividend Yield

15%

Payout Ratio

Does 6861 pay a reliable dividends?

See 6861 dividend history and benchmarks

When do you need to buy 6861 by to receive an upcoming dividend?
Keyence dividend dates
Ex Dividend Date	Sep 16 2022
Dividend Pay Date	Nov 22 2022
Days until Ex dividend	39 days
Days until Dividend pay date	106 days

Does 6861 pay a reliable dividends?

See 6861 dividend history and benchmarks

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is 6861 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

0/6

Valuation Score 0/6

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 6861?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for 6861. This is calculated by dividing 6861's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is 6861's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	JP¥13.56t

6861 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	16.1x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	28.7x
PEG Ratio	3.6x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 6861's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

6861 PE Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PE ratio for 6861 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	24.2x
7701 Shimadzu	26.6x	7.5%	JP¥1.4t
6841 Yokogawa Electric	29x	10.0%	JP¥617.9b
6845 Azbil	26.7x	5.0%	JP¥559.7b
6856 HORIBA	11.9x	0.7%	JP¥280.6b
6861 Keyence	42.7x	11.9%	JP¥13.6t

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 6861 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (42.7x) compared to the peer average (24.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 6861's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the JP Electronic Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 6861 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (42.7x) compared to the JP Electronic industry average (11.5x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 6861's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

6861 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	42.7x
Fair PE Ratio	21x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 6861 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (42.7x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (21x).

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 6861 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 6861 (¥55500) is trading above our estimate of fair value (¥35914.95)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 6861 is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Future Growth

How is Keyence forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 18 analysts?

Future Growth Score

3/6

Future Growth Score 3/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

11.9%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: 6861's forecast earnings growth (11.9% per year) is above the savings rate (0.04%).

Earnings vs Market: 6861's earnings (11.9% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the JP market (8.7% per year).

High Growth Earnings: 6861's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: 6861's revenue (11% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the JP market (4.4% per year).

High Growth Revenue: 6861's revenue (11% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: 6861's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (14.2%).

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Past Performance

How has Keyence performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

4/6

Past Performance Score 4/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

6.9%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: 6861 has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: 6861's current net profit margins (40.6%) are higher than last year (38.2%).

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: 6861's earnings have grown by 6.9% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: 6861's earnings growth over the past year (38.1%) exceeds its 5-year average (6.9% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: 6861 earnings growth over the past year (38.1%) underperformed the Electronic industry 42.3%.

Return on Equity

High ROE: 6861's Return on Equity (14.1%) is considered low.

Discover strong past performing companies

Financial Health

How is Keyence's financial position?

Financial Health Score

6/6

Financial Health Score 6/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: 6861's short term assets (¥1,345.2B) exceed its short term liabilities (¥96.9B).

Long Term Liabilities: 6861's short term assets (¥1,345.2B) exceed its long term liabilities (¥4.5B).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: 6861 is debt free.

Reducing Debt: 6861 has not had any debt for past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: 6861 has no debt, therefore it does not need to be covered by operating cash flow.

Interest Coverage: 6861 has no debt, therefore coverage of interest payments is not a concern.

Balance Sheet

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Dividend

What is Keyence current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

0/6

Dividend Score 0/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Cash Flow Coverage

0.36%

Current Dividend Yield

Upcoming Dividend Payment

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: 6861's dividend (0.36%) isn’t notable compared to the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the JP market (1.63%).

High Dividend: 6861's dividend (0.36%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the JP market (3.62%).

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: 6861 is not paying a notable dividend for the JP market, therefore no need to check if payments are stable.

Growing Dividend: 6861 is not paying a notable dividend for the JP market, therefore no need to check if payments are increasing.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: 6861 is not paying a notable dividend for the JP market.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: 6861 is not paying a notable dividend for the JP market.

Discover strong dividend paying companies

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

9.9yrs

Average board tenure

CEO

Yu Nakata

no data

Tenure

Yu Nakata serves as the President and Representative Director of Keyence Corporation.

Board Members

Experienced Board: 6861's board of directors are considered experienced (9.9 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/08/08 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/08/08 00:00
Earnings	2022/06/20
Annual Earnings	2022/03/20