Analysts Are Updating Their Keyence Corporation (TSE:6861) Estimates After Its First-Quarter Results

Shareholders might have noticed that Keyence Corporation (TSE:6861) filed its first-quarter result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 7.4% to JP¥55,200 in the past week. It looks like the results were a bit of a negative overall. While revenues of JP¥261b were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings were less than expected, missing estimates by 2.9% to hit JP¥380 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

We've found 21 US stocks that are forecast to pay a dividend yield of over 6% next year. See the full list for free.

After the latest results, the 16 analysts covering Keyence are now predicting revenues of JP¥1.14t in 2026. If met, this would reflect a satisfactory 6.3% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to accumulate 7.9% to JP¥1,767. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of JP¥1.13t and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥1,785 in 2026. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

Check out our latest analysis for Keyence

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of JP¥72,935, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic Keyence analyst has a price target of JP¥88,000 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at JP¥56,000. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We would highlight that Keyence's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 8.5% annualised growth rate until the end of 2026 being well below the historical 15% p.a. growth over the last five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 6.1% per year. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Keyence is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Keyence. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Keyence going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..

We also provide an overview of the Keyence Board and CEO remuneration and length of tenure at the company, and whether insiders have been buying the stock, here.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.