The Keyence Corporation (TSE:6861) Annual Results Are Out And Analysts Have Published New Forecasts

Investors in Keyence Corporation (TSE:6861) had a good week, as its shares rose 6.3% to close at JP¥60,890 following the release of its yearly results. Results were roughly in line with estimates, with revenues of JP¥1.1t and statutory earnings per share of JP¥1,644. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Keyence's 16 analysts is for revenues of JP¥1.14t in 2026. This would reflect a credible 8.0% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to accumulate 9.7% to JP¥1,804. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of JP¥1.18t and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥1,885 in 2026. The analysts are less bullish than they were before these results, given the reduced revenue forecasts and the small dip in earnings per share expectations.

See our latest analysis for Keyence

Despite the cuts to forecast earnings, there was no real change to the JP¥75,731 price target, showing that the analysts don't think the changes have a meaningful impact on its intrinsic value. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Keyence, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at JP¥91,000 and the most bearish at JP¥61,400 per share. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Keyence's past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Keyence's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2026 expected to display 8.0% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 15% over the past five years. Compare this to the 183 other companies in this industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenue at 6.4% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it looks like Keyence is forecast to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Keyence. They also downgraded their revenue estimates, although as we saw earlier, forecast growth is only expected to be about the same as the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Keyence going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You can also see our analysis of Keyence's Board and CEO remuneration and experience, and whether company insiders have been buying stock.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.