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The three-year earnings decline is not helping OMRON's (TSE:6645 share price, as stock falls another 5.8% in past week
Many investors define successful investing as beating the market average over the long term. But in any portfolio, there are likely to be some stocks that fall short of that benchmark. We regret to report that long term OMRON Corporation (TSE:6645) shareholders have had that experience, with the share price dropping 48% in three years, versus a market return of about 27%. And the ride hasn't got any smoother in recent times over the last year, with the price 26% lower in that time. The falls have accelerated recently, with the share price down 20% in the last three months. But this could be related to the weak market, which is down 17% in the same period.
If the past week is anything to go by, investor sentiment for OMRON isn't positive, so let's see if there's a mismatch between fundamentals and the share price.
In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).
During the three years that the share price fell, OMRON's earnings per share (EPS) dropped by 48% each year. In comparison the 20% compound annual share price decline isn't as bad as the EPS drop-off. So the market may not be too worried about the EPS figure, at the moment -- or it may have previously priced some of the drop in. This positive sentiment is also reflected in the generous P/E ratio of 103.89.
You can see how EPS has changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).
It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on OMRON's earnings, revenue and cash flow .
What About Dividends?
When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. As it happens, OMRON's TSR for the last 3 years was -45%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.
A Different Perspective
While the broader market lost about 14% in the twelve months, OMRON shareholders did even worse, losing 25% (even including dividends). Having said that, it's inevitable that some stocks will be oversold in a falling market. The key is to keep your eyes on the fundamental developments. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 5% over the last half decade. We realise that Baron Rothschild has said investors should "buy when there is blood on the streets", but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality business. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Even so, be aware that OMRON is showing 3 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 1 of those is concerning...
If you would prefer to check out another company -- one with potentially superior financials -- then do not miss this free list of companies that have proven they can grow earnings.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Japanese exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About TSE:6645
OMRON
Engages in industrial automation, device and module solutions, social systems, and healthcare businesses worldwide.
Excellent balance sheet with moderate growth potential.
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