New Risk • Aug 15
New minor risk - Profit margin trend The company's profit margins are lower than last year and have reduced by more than 30%. Net profit margin: 2.5% Last year net profit margin: 4.1% This is considered a minor risk. A large drop in profit margin could indicate the company does not have strong competitive advantages or it is yet to establish itself and its core business. Even if it is a well established business, this may make it a much riskier investment than one that has a combination of proven competitive advantages and a stable or growing profit margin. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Minor Risks Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (9.0% average weekly change). Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (2.5% net profit margin). Reported Earnings • Aug 15
Full year 2026 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations Full year 2026 results: EPS: JP¥18.20 (down from JP¥23.28 in FY 2025). Revenue: JP¥42.4b (up 28% from FY 2025). Net income: JP¥1.08b (down 21% from FY 2025). Profit margin: 2.5% (down from 4.1% in FY 2025). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) surpassed analyst estimates by 39%. Revenue is forecast to grow 16% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 10% growth forecast for the Software industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 101% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 7% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Announcement • Aug 13
freee K.K., Annual General Meeting, Sep 29, 2026 freee K.K., Annual General Meeting, Sep 29, 2026. Price Target Changed • Jul 17
Price target decreased by 7.8% to JP¥2,960 Down from JP¥3,210, the current price target is an average from 10 analysts. New target price is 23% above last closing price of JP¥2,399. Stock is down 38% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of JP¥13.07 for next year compared to JP¥23.27 last year. Announcement • Jun 27
freee K.K. to Report Fiscal Year 2026 Results on Aug 13, 2026 freee K.K. announced that they will report fiscal year 2026 results on Aug 13, 2026 Reported Earnings • May 14
Third quarter 2026 earnings: EPS misses analyst expectations Third quarter 2026 results: EPS: JP¥0.39 (down from JP¥3.62 in 3Q 2025). Revenue: JP¥10.9b (up 27% from 3Q 2025). Net income: JP¥23.0m (down 89% from 3Q 2025). Profit margin: 0.2% (down from 2.5% in 3Q 2025). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 93%. Revenue is forecast to grow 17% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 10% growth forecast for the Software industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 93% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 16% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Announcement • May 09
freee K.K. to Report Q3, 2026 Results on May 13, 2026 freee K.K. announced that they will report Q3, 2026 results at 9:00 AM, Tokyo Standard Time on May 13, 2026 Price Target Changed • Mar 30
Price target decreased by 8.9% to JP¥3,512 Down from JP¥3,855, the current price target is an average from 11 analysts. New target price is 76% above last closing price of JP¥1,991. Stock is down 44% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of JP¥16.73 for next year compared to JP¥23.27 last year. Announcement • Mar 18
freee K.K. (TSE:4478) entered into a share purchase agreement to acquire Logikura Co. freee K.K. (TSE:4478) entered into a share purchase agreement to acquire Logikura Co. on March 18, 2026. As part of the acquisition, freee K.K. is acquiring 52,500 Common shares, 7,500 Class A preferred shares, 8,400 Class B preferred shares and 15,625 Class C preferred shares of Logikura Co. Following the acquisition, Logikura Co. would become a wholly owned subsidiary of freee K.K.
For the period ending March 31, 2025, Logikura Co. reported total revenue of ¥175.91 million, EBIT of ¥13.3 million and net income of ¥5.78 million. As of March 31, 2025, Logikura Co. reported total assets of ¥83.74 million and net liabilities of ¥77.7 million.
The expected completion of the transaction is April 1, 2026. New Risk • Feb 26
New major risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 90% of Japanese stocks, typically moving 8.4% a week. This is considered a major risk. Share price volatility increases the risk of potential losses in the short-term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. It may also indicate the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months (8.4% average weekly change). Minor Risk Large one-off items impacting financial results. Reported Earnings • Feb 14
Second quarter 2026 earnings: Revenues exceed analysts expectations while EPS lags behind Second quarter 2026 results: EPS: JP¥2.56 (down from JP¥10.67 in 2Q 2025). Revenue: JP¥10.2b (up 30% from 2Q 2025). Net income: JP¥151.5m (down 76% from 2Q 2025). Profit margin: 1.5% (down from 8.0% in 2Q 2025). Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 1.3%. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 55%. Revenue is forecast to grow 17% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 10% growth forecast for the Software industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 81% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 16% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Major Estimate Revision • Dec 18
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 10% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2026 has been updated. 2026 EPS estimate increased from JP¥14.81 to JP¥16.30. Revenue forecast steady at JP¥41.6b. Net income forecast to grow 21% next year vs 22% growth forecast for Software industry in Japan. Consensus price target of JP¥4,009 unchanged from last update. Share price was steady at JP¥2,962 over the past week. Board Change • Dec 04
High number of new directors There are 5 new directors who have joined the board in the last 3 years. Director Sumito Togo was the last director to join the board, commencing their role in 2025. The company’s lack of board continuity is considered a risk according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model. Announcement • Nov 29
freee K.K. to Report Q2, 2026 Results on Feb 12, 2026 freee K.K. announced that they will report Q2, 2026 results on Feb 12, 2026 Reported Earnings • Nov 15
First quarter 2026 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations First quarter 2026 results: EPS: JP¥2.60 (down from JP¥2.90 in 1Q 2025). Revenue: JP¥9.74b (up 32% from 1Q 2025). Net income: JP¥154.0m (down 9.4% from 1Q 2025). Profit margin: 1.6% (down from 2.3% in 1Q 2025). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 3.1%. Earnings per share (EPS) also surpassed analyst estimates. Revenue is forecast to grow 17% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 11% growth forecast for the Software industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 67% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 3% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Major Estimate Revision • Aug 28
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 25% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2026 has been updated. 2026 EPS estimate fell from JP¥39.24 to JP¥29.29 per share. Revenue forecast steady at JP¥41.3b. Net income forecast to grow 27% next year vs 24% growth forecast for Software industry in Japan. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at JP¥4,033. Share price fell 6.0% to JP¥3,135 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Aug 14
Full year 2025 earnings: EPS and revenues exceed analyst expectations Full year 2025 results: EPS: JP¥23.28 (up from JP¥174 loss in FY 2024). Revenue: JP¥33.3b (up 31% from FY 2024). Net income: JP¥1.37b (up JP¥11.5b from FY 2024). Profit margin: 4.1% (up from net loss in FY 2024). The move to profitability was primarily driven by higher revenue. Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 2.2%. Earnings per share (EPS) also surpassed analyst estimates by 1.1%. Revenue is forecast to grow 16% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 11% growth forecast for the Software industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 50% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 4% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Announcement • Aug 13
freee K.K., Annual General Meeting, Sep 26, 2025 freee K.K., Annual General Meeting, Sep 26, 2025. Announcement • Jul 23
freee K.K. (TSE:4478) entered into a share purchase agreement to acquire GMO Creators Network, Inc. from CN Inc for ¥1.1 billion. freee K.K. (TSE:4478) entered into a share purchase agreement to acquire GMO Creators Network, Inc. from CN Inc. for ¥1.1 billion on July 22, 2025. As a result of the Share Transfer, GMO Creators Network will be excluded from the scope of
consolidation. The Company has also reviewed the future of GMO Creators Network and decided to transfer its shares in the company, expecting that GMO Creators Network will explore new opportunities to enhance its services.
For the period ending December 31, 2024, GMO Creators Network, Inc. reported total revenue of ¥0.45 million, operating loss of ¥0.12 million and net loss of ¥0.14 million. As of December 31, 2024, GMO Creators Network, Inc. reported total assets of ¥1.21 million and net liabilities of ¥1.38 million.
The transaction is subject to approval of merger agreement by the board of GMO Pepabo, Inc. and approval of offer by the shareholders of CN Inc.. The proposal for the Share Transfer was unanimously approved in writing by all Directors of GMO Pepabo, Inc, and was deemed to have been passed by a resolution of the Board of Directors. The expected completion of the transaction is September 1, 2025. Breakeven Date Change • Jun 30
Forecast breakeven date pushed back to 2026 The 10 analysts covering freee K.K previously expected the company to break even in 2025. New consensus forecast suggests the company will make a profit of JP¥3.61b in 2026. Average annual earnings growth of 40% is required to achieve expected profit on schedule. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Jun 04
Now 21% overvalued after recent price rise Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 12% to JP¥4,140. The fair value is estimated to be JP¥3,421, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 28% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 24%. Announcement • Jun 03
freee K.K. to Report Fiscal Year 2025 Results on Aug 13, 2025 freee K.K. announced that they will report fiscal year 2025 results on Aug 13, 2025 Reported Earnings • May 20
Third quarter 2025 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations Third quarter 2025 results: EPS: JP¥3.63 (up from JP¥41.69 loss in 3Q 2024). Revenue: JP¥8.60b (up 29% from 3Q 2024). Net income: JP¥214.0m (up JP¥2.64b from 3Q 2024). Profit margin: 2.5% (up from net loss in 3Q 2024). The move to profitability was primarily driven by higher revenue. Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) surpassed analyst estimates by 17%. Revenue is forecast to grow 18% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 9.9% growth forecast for the Software industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 24% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 7% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • May 13
Now 20% overvalued after recent price rise Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 12% to JP¥4,130. The fair value is estimated to be JP¥3,437, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 28% over the last 3 years, while earnings per share has been flat. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Apr 18
Now 22% overvalued after recent price rise Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 29% to JP¥3,845. The fair value is estimated to be JP¥3,147, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 28% over the last 3 years, while earnings per share has been flat. Price Target Changed • Apr 17
Price target increased by 7.2% to JP¥3,809 Up from JP¥3,552, the current price target is an average from 8 analysts. New target price is approximately in line with last closing price of JP¥3,700. Stock is up 36% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of JP¥23.80 next year compared to a net loss per share of JP¥174 last year. Announcement • Apr 12
freee K.K. to Report Q3, 2025 Results on May 15, 2025 freee K.K. announced that they will report Q3, 2025 results on May 15, 2025 Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Feb 28
Now 23% undervalued Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 33% to JP¥3,920. The fair value is estimated to be JP¥5,097, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 28% over the last 3 years, while earnings per share has been flat. Price Target Changed • Feb 27
Price target increased by 7.5% to JP¥3,419 Up from JP¥3,180, the current price target is an average from 9 analysts. New target price is 17% below last closing price of JP¥4,100. Stock is up 18% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of JP¥9.48 next year compared to a net loss per share of JP¥174 last year. Breakeven Date Change • Feb 18
Forecast breakeven date moved forward to 2025 The 9 analysts covering freee K.K previously expected the company to break even in 2026. New consensus forecast suggests the company will make a profit of JP¥135.6m in 2025. Earnings growth of 62% is required to achieve expected profit on schedule. Reported Earnings • Feb 16
Second quarter 2025 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations Second quarter 2025 results: EPS: JP¥10.67 (up from JP¥67.40 loss in 2Q 2024). Revenue: JP¥7.87b (up 30% from 2Q 2024). Net income: JP¥627.1m (up JP¥4.55b from 2Q 2024). Profit margin: 8.0% (up from net loss in 2Q 2024). The move to profitability was primarily driven by higher revenue. Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) exceeded analyst estimates. Revenue is forecast to grow 19% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 9.8% growth forecast for the Software industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 1% per year and the company’s share price has also increased by 1% per year. Announcement • Jan 23
freee K.K. (TSE:4478) agreed to acquire YUI Inc. from Hiroyasu Kawamura and Akihito Fujiwara. freee K.K. (TSE:4478) agreed to acquire YUI Inc. from Hiroyasu Kawamura and Akihito Fujiwara on January 21, 2025.
For the period ending January 31, 2024, YUI Inc. reported total revenue of ¥22.09 million, EBIT of ¥0.61 million and net income of ¥0.46 million. As of January 31, 2024, YUI Inc. reported total assets of ¥7.37 million and total common equity of ¥0.36 million.
The expected completion of the transaction is January 31, 2025. Reported Earnings • Nov 17
First quarter 2025 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations while revenues lag behind First quarter 2025 results: EPS: JP¥2.90 (up from JP¥39.49 loss in 1Q 2024). Revenue: JP¥7.38b (up 29% from 1Q 2024). Net income: JP¥169.9m (up JP¥2.46b from 1Q 2024). Profit margin: 2.3% (up from net loss in 1Q 2024). Revenue missed analyst estimates by 1.0%. Earnings per share (EPS) exceeded analyst estimates. Revenue is forecast to grow 18% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 10% growth forecast for the Software industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 19% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 28% per year, which means it is performing significantly worse than earnings. Major Estimate Revision • Nov 16
Consensus EPS estimates upgraded to JP¥6.26 loss The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2025 has been updated. 2025 losses forecast to reduce from -JP¥18.89 to -JP¥6.26 per share. Revenue forecast steady at JP¥33.1b. Software industry in Japan expected to see average net income growth of 19% next year. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at JP¥2,868. Share price fell 6.3% to JP¥2,798 over the past week. New Risk • Nov 06
New major risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 90% of Japanese stocks, typically moving 8.8% a week. This is considered a major risk. Share price volatility increases the risk of potential losses in the short-term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. It may also indicate the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. This is currently the only risk that has been identified for the company. Reported Earnings • Oct 03
Full year 2024 earnings: EPS misses analyst expectations Full year 2024 results: JP¥174 loss per share (improved from JP¥216 loss in FY 2023). Revenue: JP¥25.4b (up 32% from FY 2023). Net loss: JP¥10.2b (loss narrowed 18% from FY 2023). Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 1.6%. Revenue is forecast to grow 18% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 10% growth forecast for the Software industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 33% per year whereas the company’s share price has fallen by 28% per year. Major Estimate Revision • Sep 12
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 17% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2025 has been updated. 2025 expected loss increased from -JP¥15.75 to -JP¥18.40 per share. Revenue forecast unchanged at JP¥33.0b. Software industry in Japan expected to see average net income growth of 15% next year. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at JP¥2,951. Share price fell 4.6% to JP¥2,623 over the past week. Major Estimate Revision • Aug 28
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 10% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2025 has been updated. 2025 expected loss increased from -JP¥15.69 to -JP¥17.32 per share. Revenue forecast unchanged at JP¥33.0b. Software industry in Japan expected to see average net income growth of 14% next year. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at JP¥3,005. Share price rose 8.0% to JP¥2,861 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Aug 17
Full year 2024 earnings: EPS misses analyst expectations Full year 2024 results: JP¥174 loss per share (improved from JP¥216 loss in FY 2023). Revenue: JP¥25.4b (up 32% from FY 2023). Net loss: JP¥10.2b (loss narrowed 18% from FY 2023). Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 1.6%. Revenue is forecast to grow 18% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 9.8% growth forecast for the Software industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 33% per year and the company’s share price has also fallen by 33% per year. Major Estimate Revision • Aug 15
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 11% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2025 has been updated. 2025 expected loss increased from -JP¥19.41 to -JP¥21.62 per share. Revenue forecast unchanged at JP¥33.7b. Software industry in Japan expected to see average net income growth of 14% next year. Consensus price target down from JP¥3,085 to JP¥3,015. Share price rose 3.7% to JP¥2,375 over the past week. Announcement • Aug 14
freee K.K., Annual General Meeting, Sep 27, 2024 freee K.K., Annual General Meeting, Sep 27, 2024. Breakeven Date Change • Jul 08
Forecast to breakeven in 2026 The 10 analysts covering freee K.K expect the company to break even for the first time. New consensus forecast suggests the company will make a profit of JP¥2.83b in 2026. Average annual earnings growth of 73% is required to achieve expected profit on schedule. Price Target Changed • Jun 19
Price target decreased by 12% to JP¥3,090 Down from JP¥3,494, the current price target is an average from 10 analysts. New target price is 35% above last closing price of JP¥2,297. Stock is down 37% over the past year. The company is forecast to post a net loss per share of JP¥168 next year compared to a net loss per share of JP¥216 last year. Price Target Changed • Mar 16
Price target increased by 10% to JP¥3,339 Up from JP¥3,022, the current price target is an average from 9 analysts. New target price is approximately in line with last closing price of JP¥3,400. Stock is down 18% over the past year. The company is forecast to post a net loss per share of JP¥169 next year compared to a net loss per share of JP¥216 last year. Price Target Changed • Mar 09
Price target increased by 9.1% to JP¥3,133 Up from JP¥2,872, the current price target is an average from 9 analysts. New target price is 8.9% below last closing price of JP¥3,440. Stock is up 2.7% over the past year. The company is forecast to post a net loss per share of JP¥162 next year compared to a net loss per share of JP¥216 last year. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Mar 05
Now 22% undervalued Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 8.6% to JP¥3,400. The fair value is estimated to be JP¥4,340, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 30% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has declined by 55%. Revenue is forecast to grow by 58% in 2 years. Earnings are forecast to grow by 94% in the next 2 years. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Feb 20
Now 21% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 28% to JP¥2,552. The fair value is estimated to be JP¥3,249, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 30% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has declined by 55%. Revenue is forecast to grow by 58% in 2 years. Earnings are forecast to grow by 94% in the next 2 years. Breakeven Date Change • Feb 19
Forecast to breakeven in 2026 The 9 analysts covering freee K.K expect the company to break even for the first time. New consensus forecast suggests the company will make a profit of JP¥958.8m in 2026. Average annual earnings growth of 94% is required to achieve expected profit on schedule. Reported Earnings • Feb 16
Second quarter 2024 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations Second quarter 2024 results: JP¥67.40 loss per share (further deteriorated from JP¥28.40 loss in 2Q 2023). Revenue: JP¥6.05b (up 35% from 2Q 2023). Net loss: JP¥3.92b (loss widened 142% from 2Q 2023). Revenue missed analyst estimates by 1.1%. Earnings per share (EPS) also missed analyst estimates by 64%. Revenue is forecast to grow 20% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 11% growth forecast for the Software industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 55% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 40% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. Major Estimate Revision • Feb 15
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 12% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2024 has been updated. 2024 expected loss increased from -JP¥147 to -JP¥166 per share. Revenue forecast unchanged at JP¥25.4b. Software industry in Japan expected to see average net income growth of 28% next year. Consensus price target down from JP¥2,972 to JP¥2,883. Share price fell 7.8% to JP¥2,534 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Nov 17
First quarter 2024 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations First quarter 2024 results: JP¥39.49 loss per share (improved from JP¥57.47 loss in 1Q 2023). Revenue: JP¥5.72b (up 35% from 1Q 2023). Net loss: JP¥2.29b (loss narrowed 30% from 1Q 2023). Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) surpassed analyst estimates by 16%. Revenue is forecast to grow 20% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 11% growth forecast for the Software industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 60% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 28% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. New Risk • Nov 02
New major risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 90% of Japanese stocks, typically moving 7.6% a week. This is considered a major risk. Share price volatility increases the risk of potential losses in the short-term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. It may also indicate the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. This is currently the only risk that has been identified for the company. Breakeven Date Change • Aug 30
Forecast to breakeven in 2026 The 10 analysts covering freee K.K expect the company to break even for the first time. New consensus forecast suggests the company will make a profit of JP¥264.9m in 2026. Average annual earnings growth of 89% is required to achieve expected profit on schedule. Major Estimate Revision • Aug 21
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 15% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2024 has been updated. 2024 expected loss increased from -JP¥99.03 to -JP¥114 per share. Revenue forecast unchanged at JP¥25.2b. Software industry in Japan expected to see average net income growth of 15% next year. Consensus price target down from JP¥3,345 to JP¥3,218. Share price fell 10% to JP¥2,927 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Aug 15
Full year 2023 earnings: Revenues exceed analysts expectations while EPS lags behind Full year 2023 results: JP¥216 loss per share (further deteriorated from JP¥208 loss in FY 2022). Revenue: JP¥19.2b (up 34% from FY 2022). Net loss: JP¥12.3b (loss widened 6.3% from FY 2022). Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 1.1%. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 26%. Revenue is forecast to grow 21% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 11% growth forecast for the Software industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, the company's share price growth rate has exceeded its earnings growth rate by 47 percentage points per year, which is a significant difference in performance. Announcement • Aug 14
freee K.K., Annual General Meeting, Sep 28, 2023 freee K.K., Annual General Meeting, Sep 28, 2023. New Risk • Jul 23
New minor risk - Shareholder dilution The company's shareholders have been diluted in the past year. Increase in shares outstanding: 2.1% This is considered a minor risk. Shareholder dilution occurs when there is an increase in the number of shares on issue that is not proportionally distributed between all shareholders. Often due to the company raising equity capital or some options being converted into stock. All else being equal, if there are more shares outstanding then each existing share will be entitled to a lower proportion of the company's total earnings, thus reducing earnings per share (EPS). While dilution might not always result in lower EPS (like if the company is using the capital to fund an EPS accretive acquisition) in a lot cases it does, along with lower dividends per share and less voting power at shareholder meetings. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Minor Risks Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (6.7% average weekly change). Shareholders have been diluted in the past year (2.1% increase in shares outstanding). Breakeven Date Change • Jun 30
Forecast to breakeven in 2026 The 11 analysts covering freee K.K expect the company to break even for the first time. New consensus forecast suggests the company will make a profit of JP¥923.3m in 2026. Average annual earnings growth of 76% is required to achieve expected profit on schedule. Announcement • Jun 28
freee K.K. to Report Fiscal Year 2023 Results on Aug 14, 2023 freee K.K. announced that they will report fiscal year 2023 results on Aug 14, 2023 New Risk • Jun 23
New minor risk - Shareholder dilution The company's shareholders have been diluted in the past year. Increase in shares outstanding: 2.1% This is considered a minor risk. Shareholder dilution occurs when there is an increase in the number of shares on issue that is not proportionally distributed between all shareholders. Often due to the company raising equity capital or some options being converted into stock. All else being equal, if there are more shares outstanding then each existing share will be entitled to a lower proportion of the company's total earnings, thus reducing earnings per share (EPS). While dilution might not always result in lower EPS (like if the company is using the capital to fund an EPS accretive acquisition) in a lot cases it does, along with lower dividends per share and less voting power at shareholder meetings. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Minor Risks Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (6.8% average weekly change). Shareholders have been diluted in the past year (2.1% increase in shares outstanding). Major Estimate Revision • May 18
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 11% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2023 has been updated. 2023 expected loss increased from -JP¥155 to -JP¥173 per share. Revenue forecast unchanged at JP¥19.0b. Software industry in Japan expected to see average net income growth of 20% next year. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at JP¥3,185. Share price fell 3.3% to JP¥3,790 over the past week. Announcement • May 17
freee K.K. Provides Consolidated Earnings Guidance for the Fiscal Year Ending June 30, 2023 freee K.K. provided consolidated earnings guidance for the fiscal year ending June 30, 2023. For the fiscal year ending June 30, 2023, the company expects to report net sales of JPY 18,821 million. Price Target Changed • Feb 20
Price target increased by 8.1% to JP¥3,340 Up from JP¥3,091, the current price target is an average from 10 analysts. New target price is approximately in line with last closing price of JP¥3,370. Stock is up 0.1% over the past year. The company is forecast to post a net loss per share of JP¥163 next year compared to a net loss per share of JP¥208 last year. Reported Earnings • Feb 15
Second quarter 2023 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations while revenues lag behind Second quarter 2023 results: JP¥28.40 loss per share (further deteriorated from JP¥15.08 loss in 2Q 2022). Revenue: JP¥4.48b (up 29% from 2Q 2022). Net loss: JP¥1.62b (loss widened 94% from 2Q 2022). Revenue missed analyst estimates by 1.5%. Earnings per share (EPS) exceeded analyst estimates by 6.4%. Revenue is forecast to grow 23% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 14% growth forecast for the Software industry in Japan. Over the last 3 years on average, the company's share price growth rate has exceeded its earnings growth rate by 79 percentage points per year, which is a significant difference in performance. Announcement • Dec 28
freee K.K. to Report Q2, 2023 Results on Feb 14, 2023 freee K.K. announced that they will report Q2, 2023 results on Feb 14, 2023 Major Estimate Revision • Dec 06
Consensus forecasts updated The consensus outlook for 2023 has been updated. 2023 expected loss increased from -JP¥146 to -JP¥168 per share. Revenue forecast unchanged at JP¥18.8b. Software industry in Japan expected to see average net income growth of 14% next year. Consensus price target up from JP¥2,955 to JP¥3,027. Share price fell 7.8% to JP¥3,000 over the past week. Price Target Changed • Nov 17
Price target increased to JP¥3,160 Up from JP¥2,935, the current price target is an average from 10 analysts. New target price is 6.9% below last closing price of JP¥3,395. Stock is down 54% over the past year. The company is forecast to post a net loss per share of JP¥143 next year compared to a net loss per share of JP¥208 last year. Buying Opportunity • Nov 17
Now 26% undervalued Over the last 90 days, the stock is up 16%. The fair value is estimated to be JP¥4,572, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 33% over the last year. Earnings per share has declined by 344%. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 24% per annum. Earnings is also forecast to grow by 59% per annum over the same time period. Reported Earnings • Nov 16
First quarter 2023 earnings: Revenues exceed analysts expectations while EPS lags behind First quarter 2023 results: JP¥57.47 loss per share (further deteriorated from JP¥9.10 loss in 1Q 2022). Revenue: JP¥4.24b (up 25% from 1Q 2022). Net loss: JP¥3.27b (loss widened JP¥2.77b from 1Q 2022). Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 2.0%. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 148%. Revenue is forecast to grow 24% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 13% growth forecast for the Software industry in Japan.