The freee K.K. (TSE:4478) Yearly Results Are Out And Analysts Have Published New Forecasts

There's been a notable change in appetite for freee K.K. (TSE:4478) shares in the week since its annual report, with the stock down 12% to JP¥3,470. It was a workmanlike result, with revenues of JP¥33b coming in 2.2% ahead of expectations, and statutory earnings per share of JP¥23.28, in line with analyst appraisals. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on freee K.K after the latest results.

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Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from freee K.K's ten analysts is for revenues of JP¥41.5b in 2026. This would reflect a substantial 25% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to leap 69% to JP¥39.24. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of JP¥40.9b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥61.31 in 2026. The analysts seem to have become more bearish following the latest results. While there were no changes to revenue forecasts, there was a large cut to EPS estimates.

Check out our latest analysis for freee K.K

The consensus price target held steady at JP¥4,020, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on freee K.K, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at JP¥5,100 and the most bearish at JP¥2,600 per share. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. The period to the end of 2026 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 25% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 29% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 11% annually. So it's pretty clear that freee K.K is forecast to grow substantially faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for freee K.K. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥4,020, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for freee K.K going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 1 warning sign for freee K.K you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.