freee K.K.

TSE:4478 Stock Report

Market Cap: JP¥157.7b

freee K.K Valuation

Is 4478 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 4478 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 4478 (¥2681) is trading below our estimate of fair value (¥5799.39)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 4478 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 4478?

Key metric: As 4478 is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for 4478. This is calculated by dividing 4478's market cap by their current revenue.
What is 4478's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio5.8x
SalesJP¥27.09b
Market CapJP¥157.66b

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does 4478's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for 4478 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average6.1x
4180 Appier Group
4.6x19.5%JP¥148.7b
3994 Money Forward
6.3x21.2%JP¥242.1b
3993 PKSHA Technology
6.7x20.2%JP¥108.0b
4443 Sansan
6.9x16.3%JP¥248.0b
4478 freee K.K
5.8x18.3%JP¥157.7b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: 4478 is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (5.8x) compared to the peer average (6.1x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does 4478's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the JP Software Industry?

2 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
3627 Tecmira Holdings
0.4xn/aUS$24.27m
3744 SIOS
0.2xn/aUS$21.71m
No more companies available in this PS range
4478 5.8xIndustry Avg. 1.9xNo. of Companies27PS01.63.24.86.48+
2 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: 4478 is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (5.8x) compared to the JP Software industry average (1.9x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 4478's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

4478 PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio5.8x
Fair PS Ratio7.2x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: 4478 is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (5.8x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (7.2x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 4478 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentJP¥2,681.00
JP¥2,867.78
+7.0%
18.2%JP¥3,600.00JP¥2,000.00n/a9
Nov ’25JP¥2,785.00
JP¥2,856.67
+2.6%
17.8%JP¥3,500.00JP¥2,000.00n/a9
Oct ’25JP¥2,456.00
JP¥2,791.00
+13.6%
18.7%JP¥3,500.00JP¥2,000.00n/a10
Sep ’25JP¥2,779.00
JP¥3,005.00
+8.1%
23.8%JP¥4,600.00JP¥2,000.00n/a10
Aug ’25JP¥2,366.00
JP¥3,085.00
+30.4%
26.3%JP¥4,600.00JP¥2,000.00n/a10
Jul ’25JP¥2,375.00
JP¥3,085.00
+29.9%
26.3%JP¥4,600.00JP¥2,000.00n/a10
Jun ’25JP¥2,498.00
JP¥3,494.44
+39.9%
26.1%JP¥4,800.00JP¥2,000.00n/a9
May ’25JP¥2,886.00
JP¥3,427.78
+18.8%
31.4%JP¥4,800.00JP¥1,100.00n/a9
Apr ’25JP¥3,470.00
JP¥3,427.78
-1.2%
31.4%JP¥4,800.00JP¥1,100.00n/a9
Mar ’25JP¥3,745.00
JP¥2,872.22
-23.3%
22.7%JP¥3,450.00JP¥1,100.00n/a9
Feb ’25JP¥2,756.00
JP¥2,972.22
+7.8%
24.3%JP¥3,600.00JP¥1,100.00n/a9
Jan ’25JP¥3,055.00
JP¥2,961.11
-3.1%
24.6%JP¥3,700.00JP¥1,100.00n/a9
Dec ’24JP¥3,350.00
JP¥2,985.00
-10.9%
23.3%JP¥3,700.00JP¥1,100.00n/a10
Nov ’24JP¥2,571.00
JP¥3,050.00
+18.6%
24.2%JP¥4,000.00JP¥1,100.00JP¥2,785.0011
Oct ’24JP¥2,972.00
JP¥3,054.55
+2.8%
24.0%JP¥3,900.00JP¥1,100.00JP¥2,456.0011
Sep ’24JP¥2,972.00
JP¥3,136.36
+5.5%
23.9%JP¥3,900.00JP¥1,100.00JP¥2,779.0011
Aug ’24JP¥3,190.00
JP¥3,345.45
+4.9%
23.7%JP¥4,300.00JP¥1,300.00JP¥2,366.0011
Jul ’24JP¥3,255.00
JP¥3,390.91
+4.2%
24.0%JP¥4,300.00JP¥1,300.00JP¥2,375.0011
Jun ’24JP¥3,185.00
JP¥3,354.55
+5.3%
24.1%JP¥4,300.00JP¥1,300.00JP¥2,498.0011
May ’24JP¥3,800.00
JP¥3,125.00
-17.8%
27.9%JP¥4,100.00JP¥900.00JP¥2,886.0010
Apr ’24JP¥3,370.00
JP¥3,131.82
-7.1%
26.9%JP¥4,100.00JP¥900.00JP¥3,470.0011
Mar ’24JP¥3,190.00
JP¥3,131.82
-1.8%
26.9%JP¥4,100.00JP¥900.00JP¥3,745.0011
Feb ’24JP¥3,545.00
JP¥3,063.64
-13.6%
25.9%JP¥4,100.00JP¥900.00JP¥2,756.0011
Jan ’24JP¥2,928.00
JP¥3,063.64
+4.6%
25.9%JP¥4,100.00JP¥900.00JP¥3,055.0011
Dec ’23JP¥3,370.00
JP¥3,027.27
-10.2%
26.3%JP¥4,100.00JP¥900.00JP¥3,350.0011
Nov ’23JP¥2,892.00
JP¥2,935.00
+1.5%
24.7%JP¥4,100.00JP¥900.00JP¥2,571.0012

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

Discover undervalued companies

ID Holdings

JP¥27.0b

Provides information technology (IT) services in Japan.

4709

JP¥1,611.00

7D

4.8%

1Y

6.4%

GRCS

JP¥1.9b

Engages in the provision of Governance, Risk, and Compliance (GRC) software, as well as security products in Japan and internationally.

9250

JP¥1,411.00

7D

-3.4%

1Y

-19.8%

Tobila Systems

JP¥7.9b

Develops and sells nuisance call filter products in Japan.

4441

JP¥761.00

7D

2.7%

1Y

-12.0%