Sansan, Inc.

TSE:4443 Stock Report

Market Cap: JP¥273.3b

Sansan Valuation

Is 4443 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 4443 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 4443 (¥2168) is trading below our estimate of fair value (¥3452.08)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 4443 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 4443?

Key metric: As 4443 is barely profitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for 4443. This is calculated by dividing 4443's market cap by their current revenue.
What is 4443's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio7.6x
SalesJP¥35.96b
Market CapJP¥273.29b

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does 4443's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for 4443 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average6.9x
3994 Money Forward
7.2x19.7%JP¥275.3b
3923 Rakus
8.6x16.6%JP¥377.3b
4478 freee K.K
6.6x18.3%JP¥179.4b
4686 JustSystems
5.4xn/aJP¥225.4b
4443 Sansan
7.6x16.3%JP¥273.3b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: 4443 is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (7.6x) compared to the peer average (6.9x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does 4443's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the JP Software Industry?

2 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
3627 Tecmira Holdings
0.4xn/aUS$25.05m
3744 SIOS
0.2xn/aUS$22.41m
No more companies available in this PS range
4443 7.6xIndustry Avg. 1.9xNo. of Companies26PS01.63.24.86.48+
2 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: 4443 is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (7.6x) compared to the JP Software industry average (1.9x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 4443's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

4443 PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio7.6x
Fair PS Ratio8.2x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: 4443 is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (7.6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (8.2x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 4443 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentJP¥2,168.00
JP¥2,610.00
+20.4%
14.2%JP¥3,200.00JP¥2,050.00n/a5
Nov ’25JP¥2,229.00
JP¥2,610.00
+17.1%
14.2%JP¥3,200.00JP¥2,050.00n/a5
Oct ’25JP¥2,131.00
JP¥2,630.00
+23.4%
14.3%JP¥3,200.00JP¥2,050.00n/a5
Sep ’25JP¥2,190.00
JP¥2,590.00
+18.3%
15.0%JP¥3,200.00JP¥2,050.00n/a5
Aug ’25JP¥2,158.00
JP¥2,370.00
+9.8%
21.5%JP¥3,200.00JP¥1,650.00n/a5
Jul ’25JP¥1,697.00
JP¥2,080.00
+22.6%
18.8%JP¥2,800.00JP¥1,650.00n/a5
Jun ’25JP¥1,616.00
JP¥2,040.00
+26.2%
19.4%JP¥2,800.00JP¥1,650.00n/a5
May ’25JP¥1,471.00
JP¥2,070.00
+40.7%
17.9%JP¥2,800.00JP¥1,800.00n/a5
Apr ’25JP¥1,728.00
JP¥2,100.00
+21.5%
17.0%JP¥2,800.00JP¥1,800.00n/a5
Mar ’25JP¥1,806.00
JP¥2,100.00
+16.3%
17.0%JP¥2,800.00JP¥1,800.00n/a5
Feb ’25JP¥1,400.00
JP¥2,000.00
+42.9%
21.7%JP¥2,800.00JP¥1,500.00n/a5
Jan ’25JP¥1,599.00
JP¥2,040.00
+27.6%
24.9%JP¥3,000.00JP¥1,500.00n/a5
Dec ’24JP¥1,554.00
JP¥2,040.00
+31.3%
24.9%JP¥3,000.00JP¥1,500.00JP¥2,108.005
Nov ’24JP¥1,203.00
JP¥2,040.00
+69.6%
24.9%JP¥3,000.00JP¥1,500.00JP¥2,229.005
Oct ’24JP¥1,258.00
JP¥2,011.67
+59.9%
24.2%JP¥3,000.00JP¥1,400.00JP¥2,131.006
Sep ’24JP¥1,419.50
JP¥2,011.67
+41.7%
24.2%JP¥3,000.00JP¥1,400.00JP¥2,190.006
Aug ’24JP¥1,546.00
JP¥1,945.00
+25.8%
18.4%JP¥2,600.00JP¥1,400.00JP¥2,158.006
Jul ’24JP¥1,680.00
JP¥1,983.33
+18.1%
18.3%JP¥2,600.00JP¥1,400.00JP¥1,697.006
Jun ’24JP¥1,681.00
JP¥1,908.33
+13.5%
18.9%JP¥2,600.00JP¥1,400.00JP¥1,616.006
May ’24JP¥1,757.00
JP¥1,890.00
+7.6%
20.8%JP¥2,600.00JP¥1,400.00JP¥1,471.005
Apr ’24JP¥1,499.00
JP¥1,860.00
+24.1%
21.7%JP¥2,600.00JP¥1,400.00JP¥1,728.005
Mar ’24JP¥1,548.00
JP¥1,975.00
+27.6%
18.8%JP¥2,600.00JP¥1,650.00JP¥1,806.004
Feb ’24JP¥1,641.00
JP¥1,875.00
+14.3%
22.8%JP¥2,600.00JP¥1,500.00JP¥1,400.004
Jan ’24JP¥1,276.00
JP¥1,837.50
+44.0%
24.6%JP¥2,600.00JP¥1,500.00JP¥1,599.004
Dec ’23JP¥1,772.00
JP¥1,837.50
+3.7%
24.6%JP¥2,600.00JP¥1,500.00JP¥1,554.004

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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