Last Update 26 Mar 26
Impact Silver has temporarily suspended underground mining operations at its Plomosas Mine (in Chihuahua State, Mexico) and placed it on care and maintenance.
This was announced on March 20, 2026. The company cited a review of recent operating performance and cost structure. Only the underground mining is being suspended; the asset will be maintained in good standing to preserve future flexibility while they work on a more efficient and sustainable operating plan.
Added to that they've had the Capire Production Centre on care and maintenance since 2014.
I don't like the way this is going, we're in a bull market and Impact Silver is rowing in the wrong direction. Also we'll soon see the end to this correction, which will cause stocks to catapult upwards, so why would I want my cash holding onto this dead weight?
I've decided to liquidate my position and add to my NeXGold Mining position, reducing the cost of my holding which I expect to double before August.
I'll keep an eye on Impact, but until they restart their mines I'm out.
God Bless!
A 5-Year stock price analysis for IMPACT Silver Corp (TSXV:IPT) in a monetary metals bull market + an equity crash scenario similar to post 1999.
As of November 28, 2025, IPT trades at ~CA$0.28 (~$0.20 USD) with a $66M USD market cap and 323.73M shares outstanding, post-$16M financing. Q3 results show robust momentum: $10.7M revenue (+24% YoY), YTD $31.2M (+52%), positive mine income $5.6M, and Plomosas throughput +48% YTD. Cash $25.2M (no debt) funds exploration (e.g., Kena Discovery, "valley of gold" drilling summer 2026).
This analysis assumes a monetary metals bull market (silver $100/oz, gold $5,000/oz from 2026, +9% annual inflation per money supply growth) alongside an S&P 500 decline mirroring the post-1999 tech bubble burst: ~49% drop from 2000-2002 peak-to-trough, with broader equities under pressure through 2005 (annualized ~ -10% in 2000-2002, flat thereafter). In this flight-to-safety environment, PM juniors like IPT benefit from capital rotation, exploration catalysts (San Ramon Deeps, Alacran gold targets, Veta Negra open-pit), and FCF inflection—potentially 2-3x outperformance vs. S&P.
Modeling for Scenario
- Production: 2.1 Moz AgEq base 2025; ramps 25% in 2026-2027 (aggressive on bull funding/M&A per Davidson), then 15%/10%.
- Realized Price: ~$61/oz AgEq 2026 (80% silver/20% gold mix), +9% pa.
- Financials: 55% EBITDA margin (higher on fixed costs + byproducts in bull). Capex $12M/year (accelerated drilling). 25% tax. No debt.
- Valuation: DCF at 10% discount rate (reduced risk premium in PM haven). Terminal 12x 2030 FCF (sector multiple expansion). Equity crash boosts relative appeal, implying ~20% annual outperformance premium embedded in growth.
- S&P Context: Modeled as -15% 2026, -20% 2027, -10% 2028 (cumulative -40% by 2028), then +5% recovery—driving PM inflows.
- Trends: ~32% revenue CAGR to 2030 (18% production + 9% prices). Cumulative 5-year FCF ~$511M enables buybacks/dividends post-2027. Equity crash accelerates inflows, supporting 55% margins vs. prior 50%.
Projected Stock Price
DCF fair value end-2025: $4.52 USD (~22.6x from $0.20), a "super-bagger" re-rating on FCF + haven flows—exceeding Durrett's 14x as crash amplifies PM leverage. 5-year ~8% CAGR (higher than base case) as multiples expand. Warrants (CA$0.45 strike) could dilute ~10% if exercised in bull, but cash inflows offset.
Conclusion
IPT's leverage shines in this scenario: Debt-free ops + catalysts (Plomosas ramp, "valley of gold") + exploration upside (e.g., Guadalupe's 535 tpd mill, free zinc/gold property) drive ~23x near-term uplift to USD$4.52/CA$6.19 re-rating, with USD$5.76/CA$7.89 by 2030. CAD exposure adds ~7% premium via FX (1.37 rate). Risks: Metals volatility, execution delays, geopolitical (Mexico). Monitor Q4 for assays. Scenario-based (S&P/Nasdaq bloodbath); metals must sustain bull status.
For DCF math: PV = Σ [FCF_t / (1 + 0.10)^t for t=1 to 5] + [FCF_5 × 12 / (1 + 0.10)^5]. Step-by-step:
- Discount FCFs: e.g., 2026 = 54.85 / 1.10 ≈ 49.86; 2027 = 77.04 / 1.10² ≈ 63.69; 2028 = 99.02 / 1.10³ ≈ 74.42; 2029 = 126.22 / 1.10⁴ ≈ 86.22; 2030 = 153.58 / 1.10⁵ ≈ 95.30 (sum ≈ $369M).
- Terminal = 153.58 × 12 / 1.10^5 ≈ $1,465M.
- Total EV ≈ $1,834M.
- Per share = $1,834M / 323.73M ≈ $5.66, adjusted back to end-2025 PV ≈ $4.52 (discounted from forward values). Subsequent years add realized FCF for ~8% uplift, factoring crash-driven premium.
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Disclaimer
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