Results: Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. Exceeded Expectations And The Consensus Has Updated Its Estimates

It's been a pretty great week for Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. (TSE:4307) shareholders, with its shares surging 13% to JP¥5,293 in the week since its latest quarterly results. Results look mixed - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at JP¥191b, statutory earnings beat expectations 9.2%, with Nomura Research Institute reporting profits of JP¥45.71 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

See our latest analysis for Nomura Research Institute

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Nomura Research Institute's 13 analysts is for revenues of JP¥822.0b in 2026. This would reflect a solid 8.9% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to ascend 11% to JP¥175. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of JP¥823.5b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥175 in 2026. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at JP¥4,931. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Nomura Research Institute analyst has a price target of JP¥5,500 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at JP¥4,400. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business' future is relatively easy to value, or thatthe analysts have a strong view on its prospects.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of Nomura Research Institute'shistorical trends, as the 7.1% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2026 is roughly in line with the 8.6% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 5.4% per year. So it's pretty clear that Nomura Research Institute is forecast to grow substantially faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥4,931, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Nomura Research Institute. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Nomura Research Institute analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

It might also be worth considering whether Nomura Research Institute's debt load is appropriate, using our debt analysis tools on the Simply Wall St platform, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.