Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. (TSE:4307) After Its Annual Results

As you might know, Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. (TSE:4307) recently reported its full-year numbers. Revenues of JP¥737b were in line with forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) came in below expectations at JP¥137, missing estimates by 4.0%. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

See our latest analysis for Nomura Research Institute

Following the latest results, Nomura Research Institute's twelve analysts are now forecasting revenues of JP¥775.8b in 2025. This would be a reasonable 5.3% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to swell 11% to JP¥154. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of JP¥777.1b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥158 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the small dip in their earnings per share numbers for next year.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at JP¥4,668, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on Nomura Research Institute, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at JP¥5,100 and the most bearish at JP¥3,850 per share. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that Nomura Research Institute is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Nomura Research Institute's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 5.3% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 8.4% over the past five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 5.0% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while Nomura Research Institute's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's expected to grow roughly in line with the industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Nomura Research Institute. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Nomura Research Institute going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You can also see whether Nomura Research Institute is carrying too much debt, and whether its balance sheet is healthy, for free on our platform here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.